Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals

Cristopher Sánchez vs Cade Cavalli · 2026-06-25 · 87°F

2.7% edge · Washington Nationals

Philadelphia Phillies win

58.1%

Washington Nationals win

41.9%

Fair line (home)

+139

Proj. total

8.81

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.93)Washington Nationals (mean 3.87)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.81

Over

48.5%

Under

51.5%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Philadelphia Phillies	58.1%	-164	-139
Washington Nationals	41.9%	+150	+139

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trea Turner	4.9	.921	.214	.028	.128	.339	.872	.284	.340	.428	.768
Kyle Schwarber	4.8	.503	.130	.012	.297	.746	1.338	.236	.365	.497	.861
Bryce Harper	4.7	.696	.231	.010	.211	.630	.929	.285	.386	.504	.890
Brandon Marsh	4.6	.797	.205	.028	.122	.428	1.174	.278	.350	.429	.779
Alec Bohm	4.5	.807	.196	.016	.123	.320	.650	.277	.337	.422	.759
Bryson Stott	4.4	.741	.171	.029	.101	.389	.679	.263	.334	.396	.730
J.T. Realmuto	4.3	.677	.176	.017	.118	.302	.929	.254	.320	.398	.718
Gabriel Rincones Jr.	4.2	.554	.148	.011	.109	.443	1.077	.224	.316	.360	.676
Justin Crawford	4.0	.746	.166	.025	.057	.304	.771	.268	.329	.373	.702

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James Wood	4.6	.680	.221	.008	.169	.511	1.423	.266	.353	.450	.803
Curtis Mead	4.5	.759	.226	.019	.108	.291	.953	.270	.328	.412	.740
Andrés Chaparro	4.4	.652	.201	.007	.121	.309	1.105	.244	.302	.388	.690
Dylan Crews	4.3	.695	.183	.024	.105	.233	1.034	.253	.303	.390	.693
Daylen Lile	4.2	.768	.204	.061	.075	.235	.774	.285	.330	.426	.757
Jacob Young	4.0	.785	.167	.025	.059	.217	.798	.274	.321	.378	.699
Nasim Nuñez	3.9	.707	.110	.014	.031	.281	.975	.237	.296	.300	.596
Jorbit Vivas	3.8	.654	.178	.008	.043	.299	.630	.255	.326	.349	.675
Keibert Ruiz	3.7	.679	.180	.004	.087	.126	.497	.268	.299	.394	.693

Data notes: game-time temp 87F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections