A baseball engine that shows you the whole picture.
Most tools hand you one number. We simulate every game thousands of times and give you the full range of what can happen — so you can make your own informed decisions.
How it works
Four steps, run on every game, every day.
Estimate true talent
Every hitter and pitcher gets a talent estimate built from multiple seasons of data and industry projections, regressed toward league average based on how much we've actually seen — so a 60-at-bat hot streak isn't mistaken for a new player. Aging is accounted for.
Build the matchup
For each plate appearance we combine the batter's and pitcher's profiles, then adjust for the things that actually move run-scoring: ballpark, game-time temperature, platoon (lefty/righty) splits, bullpen quality, the starter's fade later in games, and team defense.
Simulate 10,000 times
Each game is played out ten thousand times, one plate appearance at a time, with real baserunning, pitching changes, and extra-innings rules. We keep the full range of results — not just an average.
Compare to the market
The model's numbers are lined up against live sportsbook odds so you can see where they agree, where they disagree, and by how much — every projection logged before first pitch.
What you get
Every game on the slate comes with all of this.
Win probabilities & fair lines
Each team's chance to win, expressed as a percentage and a fair moneyline.
Full score distributions
The probability of every run total for each team — the floors and ceilings a single number hides.
Totals & over/under
Projected total runs plus the model's over/under probability against the posted line.
Projected player lines
Per-game expected box scores for every hitter in the lineup: hits, home runs, walks, OBP/SLG/OPS and more.
Model-vs-market edges
Where our number differs from the sportsbook, and which side it favors.
A rolling 3-day slate
Yesterday, today, and tomorrow — results, live games, and upcoming matchups with odds.
Why distributions, not picks
Two games can have the same projected total of 8 runs and be completely different bets — one a steady 7-to-9, the other a coin flip between 4 and 12. A single number erases that. By keeping the whole distribution, you see the floor, the ceiling, and the real odds of every outcome — the information you actually need to judge a line, build a lineup, or decide a game isn't worth playing.
Before you subscribe
Straight answers to the things that matter.
Is this betting advice or a guaranteed system?
No. SaberSlam is an analytics and information service for fantasy, DFS, and research. We publish probabilities and distributions; we do not tell you what to bet, and nothing here guarantees a profit. Baseball is high-variance — even a strong projection is wrong a meaningful share of the time, by design.
How accurate is the model?
We publish our track record openly, including how our win-probability accuracy (Brier score) compares to the market and whether lines move toward our numbers (closing-line value). We'd rather show you real, early, small-sample numbers than make claims we can't back up. Read the track record and judge for yourself before subscribing.
When do projections appear?
Games show up as soon as the schedule is posted, with odds and probable pitchers. A game's projection fills in once that day's lineup is announced — usually a few hours before first pitch — and updates if the inputs change.
What's covered?
Major League Baseball, every game on the slate. Other sports aren't part of the service today.
Where does the data come from?
Official MLB statistics, public player projections, and live sportsbook odds, all run through our own simulation engine. The projections are ours; the inputs are industry-standard sources.
What does it cost, and can I cancel?
All-Access is $10/month, billed monthly, cancel anytime from your account page — no long-term commitment. Yesterday's full slate and our complete track record are free without an account, so you can judge the model before paying anything.