Season projections
Every remaining regular-season game simulated 2,000 times at the plate-appearance level, then 100,000 full-season replays through the playoff bracket. Model projections, not guarantees — how this works.
| Team | W-L | Proj W | Win range (5–95%) | Division | Wild card | Playoffs | Pennant | World Series ↓ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles DodgersNL West | 82-55 | 97.8 | >99.9% | <0.1% | 100.0% | 46.8% | 33.5% | |
| Tampa Bay RaysAL East | 82-54 | 95.1 | 80.1% | 19.9% | 100.0% | 25.4% | 10.4% | |
| Milwaukee BrewersNL Central | 85-52 | 97.6 | 98.3% | 1.7% | 100.0% | 16.0% | 8.0% | |
| Atlanta BravesNL East | 82-55 | 94.7 | 87.4% | 12.6% | >99.9% | 13.8% | 7.3% | |
| New York YankeesAL East | 78-59 | 91.5 | 19.1% | 80.9% | >99.9% | 17.3% | 7.1% | |
| Philadelphia PhilliesNL East | 77-60 | 89.5 | 12.6% | 85.5% | 98.2% | 11.1% | 6.1% | |
| Houston AstrosAL West | 69-68 | 81.5 | 66.7% | 3.1% | 69.8% | 13.0% | 5.3% | |
| Boston Red SoxAL East | 74-63 | 87.0 | 0.8% | 97.0% | 97.9% | 12.6% | 5.1% | |
| Chicago White SoxAL Central | 72-64 | 84.7 | 72.9% | 14.1% | 86.9% | 13.5% | 4.5% | |
| Chicago CubsNL Central | 77-60 | 89.0 | 1.7% | 94.7% | 96.4% | 6.4% | 3.1% | |
| Toronto Blue JaysAL East | 68-70 | 80.8 | 0.0% | 37.0% | 37.0% | 4.8% | 2.0% | |
| Cleveland GuardiansAL Central | 69-68 | 82.1 | 25.4% | 27.3% | 52.8% | 6.2% | 2.0% | |
| San Diego PadresNL West | 72-65 | 84.8 | <0.1% | 58.8% | 58.8% | 4.0% | 1.9% | |
| Seattle MarinersAL West | 64-73 | 78.5 | 18.7% | 3.2% | 21.9% | 3.8% | 1.6% | |
| Texas RangersAL West | 67-70 | 78.8 | 14.6% | 4.4% | 19.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% | |
| Arizona DiamondbacksNL West | 73-65 | 84.1 | 0.0% | 37.1% | 37.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% | |
| Detroit TigersAL Central | 63-73 | 76.5 | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| Pittsburgh PiratesNL Central | 67-71 | 79.8 | 0.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| Baltimore OriolesAL East | 68-69 | 78.9 | 0.0% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| Minnesota TwinsAL Central | 65-72 | 76.7 | 0.6% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 0.2% | <0.1% | |
| Miami MarlinsNL East | 69-68 | 80.2 | 0.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 0.1% | <0.1% | |
| St. Louis CardinalsNL Central | 68-70 | 79.5 | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% | |
| Kansas City RoyalsAL Central | 62-76 | 72.8 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| AthleticsAL West | 53-84 | 62.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| Los Angeles AngelsAL West | 52-85 | 62.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| Washington NationalsNL East | 65-74 | 74.6 | 0.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| New York MetsNL East | 61-76 | 73.8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| Cincinnati RedsNL Central | 65-72 | 75.0 | 0.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| San Francisco GiantsNL West | 56-81 | 66.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| Colorado RockiesNL West | 52-85 | 61.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Wild card = reaches the postseason without winning the division. Postseason series use team-strength ratings at full expected strength (October rotations are unknowable in advance). Lineups and bullpens as of the run date; players on the 10/15-day injured list rejoin the simulation at their projected return date (estimated from two seasons of MLB transaction history); trades and 60-day IL moves are reflected at the next weekly run.
Awards & leaders
End-of-season odds from 20,000 Monte Carlo draws of every remaining plate appearance, added to what each player has actually done so far.