Track Record
Every tracked game, scored honestly. Updated 2026-06-15.
Games tracked
36
Model Brier
0.2445
Market Brier
0.2402
Closing-line beat
67%
How to read this: Brier score is mean squared error of win probabilities — lower is sharper, and beating the market's Brier means we were more accurate than the closing price. Closing-line beat rate is the share of games where the market moved toward our number after we posted it. These samples are small and early; we publish them anyway.
| Date | Matchup | Model (home) | Market (home) | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox | 50.8% | 51.4% | 6–4 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-13 | Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels | 47.8% | 48.5% | 0–8 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-13 | Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants | 45.2% | 48.4% | 6–1 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-13 | Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers | 53.6% | 47.7% | 9–8 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-13 | Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals | 52.1% | 49.1% | 8–7 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox | 33.0% | 37.0% | 7–1 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-13 | Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets | 57.0% | 51.6% | 3–1 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-13 | Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox | 50.9% | 50.2% | 3–6 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-13 | Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | 41.1% | 52.0% | 1–3 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-13 | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds | 46.8% | 50.0% | 1–2 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-13 | Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 49.1% | 59.9% | 2–3 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-13 | Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals | 49.5% | 44.5% | 3–8 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-13 | San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles | 57.3% | 55.0% | 9–3 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-13 | New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | 48.9% | 47.2% | 3–1 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-13 | St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins | 50.1% | 51.2% | 9–6 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-12 | Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants | 48.8% | 53.7% | 5–1 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-12 | Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels | 42.6% | 40.2% | 3–4 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-12 | Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals | 49.8% | 48.9% | 10–8 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-12 | St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins | 56.2% | 55.2% | 8–9 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-12 | Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers | 59.8% | 69.5% | 0–6 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-12 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox | 43.2% | 41.7% | 2–8 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-12 | New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays | 51.6% | 50.9% | 5–8 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-12 | Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets | 52.8% | 53.5% | 5–7 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-12 | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds | 49.7% | 51.2% | 5–2 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-12 | Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox | 54.3% | 54.7% | 1–10 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-12 | Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians | 48.8% | 53.1% | 2–3 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-12 | San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles | 52.6% | 53.9% | 3–7 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-12 | Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals | 47.0% | 43.2% | 10–2 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-12 | Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 54.7% | 56.6% | 8–3 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-11 | St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Mets | 57.4% | 57.8% | 4–5 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-11 | Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | 54.9% | 54.4% | 0–11 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-11 | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Miami Marlins | 51.1% | 55.0% | 0–2 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-11 | Texas Rangers @ Kansas City Royals | 51.5% | 51.3% | 4–2 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-11 | Chicago Cubs @ Colorado Rockies | 38.2% | 40.7% | 9–3 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-11 | Seattle Mariners @ Baltimore Orioles | 51.1% | 51.2% | 5–7 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-11 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 43.3% | 62.2% | 8–6 | ✓ |