See the whole distribution,
not just the pick.
Every MLB game, simulated thousands of times. Floors, ceilings, and the real probability of every outcome — the edge other tools flatten into a single number.
Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals
Built for decisions, not headlines
Three things every card gives you that a point estimate can't.
Full outcome ranges
The probability a team scores 2 runs vs 7 — floors and ceilings for totals, sides, and team scoring.
Context-aware engine
Park, weather, platoon splits, bullpen quality, times-through-order and defense — folded into every sim.
Transparent accuracy
We publish our calibration and closing-line value. You see exactly how the model has performed.
How it works
A Monte Carlo engine, run on every game, every day.
1 · Simulate
Each game is played out 10,000 times at the plate-appearance level using shrunken, projection-based talent estimates.
2 · Distribute
We keep the full spread of results — win probability, score distributions, totals, and per-player lines.
3 · Compare
Model numbers are lined up against the market so you can see where they disagree, and by how much.
The receipts
Full record →Lower Brier is sharper. Mean closing-line value is how far the market moved toward our pick after we logged it, in implied-probability points — positive means we got the better price. For scale, the house margin is around 2 points, so a figure below that is real but not enough to beat the vig. A handful of rows moved far enough to look like scratches rather than market opinion, and they carry about a third of that average; the full record shows it with those screened out too.
Simple pricing
One plan. Every game, every day.
All-Access
- Today's full slate — win probabilities & edges
- Complete outcome distributions
- Per-player projected lines
- The daily Edges board
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Try before you pay
Yesterday's full slate — every projection next to what actually happened — and our complete track record are free, forever. Judge the model on its record, not our marketing.
See yesterday's slate →