Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals — Prediction & Odds

September 16, 2026 · Zack Wheeler vs Jared Simpson · 81°F

3.1% edge · Washington Nationals

Philadelphia Phillies win

61.0%

Washington Nationals win

39.0%

Fair line (home)

+157

Proj. total

9.26

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Philadelphia Phillies (mean 5.34)Washington Nationals (mean 3.92)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.26

Over

42.4%

Under

47.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Philadelphia Phillies	61.0%	-190	-157
Washington Nationals	39.0%	+173	+157

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Zack Wheeler RHP · Philadelphia Phillies	5.4	6.0	5.0	1.5	2.1
Jared Simpson LHP · Washington Nationals	2.0	1.6	2.1	1.4	1.0

Strikeout ladder

Zack Wheeler4+ 87%6+ 57%8+ 24%

Jared Simpson4+ 7%6+ 0%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	5.0	.496	.131	.010	.292	.937	1.389	.230	.382	.485	.867
Trea Turner	4.9	.856	.213	.023	.141	.400	.902	.276	.341	.429	.769
Bryce Harper	4.8	.665	.229	.015	.201	.790	.946	.279	.402	.495	.898
Luis Arraez	4.7	1.077	.196	.040	.052	.307	.195	.314	.364	.413	.777
Alec Bohm	4.6	.806	.207	.015	.120	.403	.628	.278	.349	.423	.771
Bryson Stott	4.5	.735	.179	.031	.096	.510	.676	.265	.354	.400	.754
J.T. Realmuto	4.4	.656	.193	.010	.120	.381	.918	.250	.329	.397	.726
Brandon Marsh	4.2	.697	.180	.021	.118	.462	1.034	.271	.355	.424	.778
Justin Crawford	4.1	.826	.176	.035	.056	.316	.701	.288	.348	.397	.745

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James Wood	4.6	.599	.190	.009	.209	.577	1.465	.254	.353	.465	.819
Daylen Lile	4.5	.713	.187	.073	.120	.255	.994	.263	.313	.429	.742
Abimelec Ortiz	4.3	.557	.182	.006	.177	.295	1.197	.230	.290	.411	.701
CJ Abrams	4.3	.615	.186	.027	.152	.279	1.066	.252	.316	.432	.748
José Tena	4.2	.653	.185	.023	.085	.284	1.258	.247	.304	.374	.679
Jorbit Vivas	4.0	.644	.165	.015	.059	.374	.717	.245	.328	.349	.677
Dylan Crews	3.9	.568	.155	.017	.111	.253	1.060	.235	.296	.379	.675
Keibert Ruiz	3.8	.674	.176	.003	.103	.176	.527	.266	.309	.403	.713
Nasim Nuñez	3.7	.628	.081	.027	.031	.297	.924	.228	.295	.296	.591

Data notes: home starter Jared Simpson: only 4 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Jared Simpson: only 10 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections