3.4% edge · Washington Nationals
Philadelphia Phillies win
57.1%
Washington Nationals win
42.9%
Fair line (home)
+133
Proj. total
8.84
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.90)Washington Nationals (mean 3.94)
Totals
O/U line
8.5
Proj. total
8.84
Over
49.8%
Under
50.2%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 57.1% | -161 | -133 |
| Washington Nationals | 42.9% | +148 | +133 |
Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner | 4.9 | .878 | .209 | .023 | .132 | .380 | .884 | .275 | .336 | .419 | .755 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 4.8 | .460 | .122 | .011 | .287 | .825 | 1.323 | .224 | .366 | .480 | .846 |
| Bryce Harper | 4.7 | .657 | .233 | .010 | .211 | .708 | .898 | .280 | .393 | .503 | .896 |
| Brandon Marsh | 4.6 | .738 | .203 | .031 | .124 | .477 | 1.161 | .267 | .347 | .423 | .770 |
| Alec Bohm | 4.5 | .802 | .198 | .015 | .116 | .354 | .634 | .275 | .339 | .415 | .754 |
| Bryson Stott | 4.4 | .722 | .161 | .028 | .108 | .431 | .666 | .259 | .336 | .397 | .733 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 4.3 | .657 | .165 | .014 | .111 | .332 | .926 | .244 | .314 | .380 | .694 |
| Gabriel Rincones Jr. | 4.2 | .527 | .149 | .009 | .102 | .478 | 1.068 | .216 | .315 | .347 | .661 |
| Justin Crawford | 4.0 | .741 | .157 | .026 | .056 | .341 | .767 | .266 | .333 | .369 | .702 |
Washington Nationals — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Wood | 4.6 | .603 | .200 | .008 | .198 | .597 | 1.442 | .255 | .357 | .460 | .817 |
| Curtis Mead | 4.5 | .706 | .221 | .017 | .126 | .347 | .961 | .263 | .331 | .419 | .750 |
| Andrés Chaparro | 4.4 | .598 | .194 | .006 | .145 | .359 | 1.142 | .237 | .305 | .399 | .704 |
| CJ Abrams | 4.3 | .675 | .194 | .033 | .141 | .299 | .910 | .268 | .332 | .443 | .775 |
| Dylan Crews | 4.2 | .627 | .159 | .025 | .119 | .283 | 1.039 | .243 | .304 | .391 | .694 |
| Jacob Young | 4.1 | .746 | .147 | .025 | .061 | .266 | .825 | .261 | .318 | .362 | .681 |
| Jorbit Vivas | 4.0 | .644 | .168 | .008 | .050 | .374 | .673 | .248 | .333 | .343 | .675 |
| Nasim Nuñez | 3.8 | .640 | .094 | .011 | .032 | .308 | .972 | .223 | .291 | .283 | .574 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 3.7 | .663 | .169 | .004 | .090 | .152 | .500 | .263 | .300 | .389 | .690 |
Data notes: home starter PJ Poulin: only 60 BF vs LHB this season · home starter PJ Poulin: only 66 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections