3.9% edge · Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies win
50.6%
Washington Nationals win
49.4%
Fair line (home)
+102
Proj. total
8.82
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.55)Washington Nationals (mean 4.27)
Totals
O/U line
9.5
Proj. total
8.82
Over
38.7%
Under
61.3%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 50.6% | +110 | -102 |
| Washington Nationals | 49.4% | -119 | +102 |
Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner | 4.8 | .882 | .208 | .024 | .134 | .297 | .870 | .278 | .328 | .424 | .752 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 4.7 | .497 | .129 | .013 | .294 | .649 | 1.350 | .233 | .348 | .492 | .840 |
| Bryce Harper | 4.6 | .692 | .230 | .011 | .210 | .560 | .901 | .285 | .377 | .505 | .883 |
| Alec Bohm | 4.5 | .831 | .193 | .017 | .118 | .279 | .656 | .278 | .330 | .417 | .747 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 4.4 | .721 | .186 | .020 | .117 | .179 | .951 | .252 | .295 | .392 | .687 |
| Brandon Marsh | 4.3 | .731 | .188 | .026 | .113 | .368 | 1.102 | .272 | .339 | .421 | .760 |
| Derek Hill | 4.2 | .654 | .144 | .018 | .105 | .240 | 1.148 | .238 | .291 | .365 | .657 |
| Bryson Stott | 4.0 | .694 | .159 | .026 | .095 | .328 | .623 | .264 | .328 | .398 | .726 |
| Rafael Marchán | 3.9 | .607 | .142 | .008 | .072 | .255 | .674 | .229 | .293 | .333 | .626 |
Washington Nationals — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Wood | 4.6 | .654 | .215 | .007 | .186 | .649 | 1.318 | .269 | .377 | .469 | .846 |
| Curtis Mead | 4.5 | .740 | .221 | .017 | .116 | .360 | .880 | .268 | .339 | .416 | .755 |
| Dylan Crews | 4.4 | .690 | .173 | .026 | .122 | .311 | .986 | .250 | .313 | .396 | .710 |
| CJ Abrams | 4.3 | .690 | .193 | .033 | .137 | .318 | .821 | .270 | .338 | .441 | .779 |
| Jacob Young | 4.2 | .778 | .165 | .028 | .062 | .289 | .760 | .268 | .327 | .373 | .700 |
| Daylen Lile | 4.1 | .749 | .182 | .057 | .082 | .288 | .696 | .284 | .340 | .427 | .767 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 4.0 | .709 | .180 | .004 | .099 | .176 | .494 | .263 | .303 | .392 | .695 |
| Luis García Jr. | 3.9 | .713 | .195 | .026 | .107 | .210 | .577 | .286 | .328 | .442 | .770 |
| Nasim Nuñez | 3.7 | .663 | .099 | .012 | .034 | .346 | .829 | .240 | .316 | .306 | .622 |
Data notes: away starter Tim Mayza: only 63 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Tim Mayza: only 68 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections