6.7% edge · Kansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals win
51.2%
Washington Nationals win
48.8%
Fair line (home)
+105
Proj. total
10.03
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Kansas City Royals (mean 5.17)Washington Nationals (mean 4.86)
Totals
O/U line
10.5
Proj. total
10.03
Over
42.2%
Under
57.8%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals | 51.2% | +120 | -105 |
| Washington Nationals | 48.8% | -130 | +105 |
Kansas City Royals — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Jensen | 4.9 | .734 | .222 | .019 | .200 | .399 | 1.087 | .264 | .328 | .457 | .785 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 4.8 | .838 | .270 | .036 | .243 | .325 | .662 | .315 | .367 | .559 | .926 |
| Jac Caglianone | 4.7 | .743 | .212 | .021 | .250 | .327 | .935 | .288 | .346 | .523 | .869 |
| Lane Thomas | 4.5 | .694 | .208 | .016 | .161 | .372 | .929 | .262 | .331 | .438 | .769 |
| Michael Massey | 4.4 | .768 | .217 | .012 | .165 | .181 | .628 | .276 | .311 | .451 | .762 |
| Salvador Perez | 4.3 | .693 | .172 | .003 | .239 | .186 | .699 | .272 | .314 | .493 | .807 |
| John Rave | 4.2 | .641 | .173 | .025 | .134 | .349 | .907 | .253 | .319 | .416 | .735 |
| Nick Loftin | 4.1 | .668 | .174 | .028 | .102 | .371 | .524 | .264 | .340 | .410 | .750 |
| Isaac Collins | 4.0 | .612 | .173 | .023 | .091 | .433 | .786 | .257 | .348 | .398 | .746 |
Washington Nationals — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Wood | 4.7 | .665 | .220 | .007 | .223 | .738 | 1.245 | .282 | .399 | .510 | .909 |
| Luis García Jr. | 4.6 | .852 | .221 | .028 | .154 | .287 | .639 | .291 | .338 | .462 | .800 |
| Curtis Mead | 4.5 | .750 | .216 | .019 | .128 | .413 | .793 | .278 | .357 | .437 | .794 |
| CJ Abrams | 4.4 | .706 | .208 | .033 | .160 | .374 | .755 | .282 | .358 | .474 | .832 |
| Dylan Crews | 4.3 | .683 | .166 | .026 | .134 | .342 | .881 | .260 | .330 | .419 | .749 |
| Daylen Lile | 4.2 | .746 | .197 | .056 | .100 | .323 | .672 | .288 | .350 | .447 | .797 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 4.1 | .747 | .190 | .004 | .111 | .221 | .438 | .276 | .324 | .416 | .740 |
| José Tena | 4.0 | .675 | .191 | .025 | .086 | .323 | .945 | .270 | .334 | .408 | .742 |
| Nasim Nuñez | 3.9 | .675 | .105 | .018 | .040 | .424 | .811 | .247 | .336 | .323 | .659 |
Data notes: away starter Luinder Avila: only 63 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 87F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections