1.3% edge · Kansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals win
46.6%
Washington Nationals win
53.4%
Fair line (home)
-114
Proj. total
9.63
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Kansas City Royals (mean 4.79)Washington Nationals (mean 4.83)
Totals
O/U line
9.5
Proj. total
9.63
Over
45.7%
Under
54.3%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals | 46.6% | +116 | +114 |
| Washington Nationals | 53.4% | -126 | -114 |
Kansas City Royals — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lane Thomas | 4.9 | .724 | .209 | .016 | .126 | .501 | 1.090 | .247 | .333 | .389 | .722 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 4.8 | .821 | .269 | .034 | .179 | .416 | .733 | .300 | .367 | .502 | .869 |
| Jac Caglianone | 4.7 | .732 | .197 | .019 | .184 | .408 | 1.036 | .268 | .340 | .454 | .793 |
| Maikel Garcia | 4.6 | .830 | .217 | .035 | .085 | .438 | .592 | .283 | .354 | .414 | .768 |
| Starling Marte | 4.5 | .853 | .192 | .013 | .097 | .324 | .899 | .283 | .347 | .408 | .755 |
| Salvador Perez | 4.4 | .685 | .172 | .004 | .172 | .236 | .781 | .254 | .305 | .424 | .730 |
| Nick Loftin | 4.3 | .677 | .178 | .033 | .078 | .459 | .580 | .259 | .349 | .387 | .736 |
| Carter Jensen | 4.1 | .584 | .181 | .015 | .123 | .447 | .995 | .246 | .331 | .404 | .735 |
| Isaac Collins | 4.0 | .586 | .167 | .016 | .062 | .502 | .852 | .240 | .345 | .351 | .696 |
Washington Nationals — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Wood | 4.7 | .731 | .229 | .010 | .227 | .595 | 1.180 | .295 | .391 | .525 | .916 |
| Luis García Jr. | 4.6 | .892 | .242 | .030 | .154 | .224 | .571 | .305 | .342 | .481 | .823 |
| Curtis Mead | 4.5 | .770 | .222 | .019 | .135 | .340 | .740 | .284 | .350 | .449 | .799 |
| CJ Abrams | 4.3 | .732 | .209 | .035 | .169 | .303 | .707 | .289 | .353 | .488 | .840 |
| Dylan Crews | 4.2 | .703 | .178 | .026 | .132 | .287 | .819 | .267 | .327 | .428 | .755 |
| Daylen Lile | 4.1 | .772 | .206 | .063 | .098 | .267 | .608 | .297 | .349 | .461 | .810 |
| Jacob Young | 4.0 | .803 | .165 | .029 | .068 | .254 | .619 | .286 | .340 | .400 | .740 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 3.9 | .715 | .186 | .004 | .112 | .177 | .405 | .275 | .316 | .419 | .735 |
| Nasim Nuñez | 3.8 | .699 | .109 | .021 | .038 | .343 | .745 | .253 | .327 | .331 | .658 |
Data notes: home starter Andrew Alvarez: only 33 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Andrew Alvarez: only 70 BF vs RHB this season · away starter Mitch Spence: only 11 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Mitch Spence: only 10 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections