11.8% edge · Toronto Blue Jays
Texas Rangers win
39.7%
Toronto Blue Jays win
60.3%
Fair line (home)
-152
Proj. total
8.21
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Texas Rangers (mean 3.73)Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.48)
Totals
O/U line
8.5
Proj. total
8.21
Over
43.0%
Under
57.0%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers | 39.7% | -117 | +152 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 60.3% | -103 | -152 |
Texas Rangers — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joc Pederson | 4.7 | .570 | .129 | .023 | .169 | .597 | 1.277 | .220 | .331 | .389 | .720 |
| Josh Jung | 4.6 | .732 | .195 | .007 | .136 | .290 | 1.248 | .250 | .303 | .395 | .698 |
| Corey Seager | 4.5 | .616 | .164 | .003 | .176 | .516 | 1.109 | .244 | .337 | .421 | .758 |
| Brandon Nimmo | 4.4 | .633 | .148 | .016 | .122 | .436 | 1.173 | .236 | .321 | .376 | .698 |
| Jake Burger | 4.3 | .560 | .160 | .008 | .166 | .280 | 1.283 | .225 | .284 | .395 | .679 |
| Jarred Kelenic | 4.2 | .476 | .149 | .011 | .104 | .371 | 1.509 | .195 | .270 | .323 | .593 |
| Alejandro Osuna | 4.1 | .625 | .147 | .010 | .068 | .422 | .963 | .237 | .326 | .341 | .667 |
| Elias Díaz | 4.0 | .533 | .134 | .005 | .087 | .274 | 1.178 | .208 | .269 | .319 | .588 |
| Nicky Lopez | 3.8 | .648 | .118 | .016 | .021 | .337 | .785 | .233 | .308 | .295 | .603 |
Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Lukes | 4.6 | .872 | .219 | .019 | .092 | .363 | .645 | .287 | .350 | .414 | .764 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 4.5 | .805 | .209 | .004 | .199 | .529 | .525 | .311 | .399 | .519 | .919 |
| Daulton Varsho | 4.4 | .564 | .175 | .035 | .170 | .381 | .956 | .238 | .312 | .429 | .741 |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 4.3 | .594 | .168 | .005 | .195 | .360 | .911 | .249 | .320 | .446 | .766 |
| Alejandro Kirk | 4.2 | .727 | .162 | .006 | .136 | .441 | .471 | .279 | .361 | .437 | .798 |
| Sean Keys | 4.1 | .507 | .153 | .007 | .124 | .432 | 1.075 | .221 | .316 | .373 | .689 |
| Ernie Clement | 4.0 | .767 | .207 | .018 | .084 | .174 | .357 | .286 | .322 | .418 | .741 |
| Yohendrick Piñango | 3.8 | .601 | .173 | .009 | .098 | .320 | .817 | .252 | .319 | .390 | .710 |
| Andrés Giménez | 3.7 | .621 | .155 | .016 | .089 | .205 | .603 | .257 | .315 | .390 | .706 |
Data notes: away starter Cal Quantrill: only 71 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Cal Quantrill: only 63 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections