26.8% edge · Toronto Blue Jays
Texas Rangers win
50.2%
Toronto Blue Jays win
49.8%
Fair line (home)
+101
Proj. total
8.33
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Texas Rangers (mean 4.29)Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.04)
Totals
O/U line
9.5
Proj. total
8.33
Over
34.0%
Under
66.0%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers | 50.2% | -419 | -101 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 49.8% | +315 | +101 |
Texas Rangers — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wyatt Langford | 4.8 | .694 | .194 | .031 | .171 | .519 | 1.012 | .258 | .344 | .440 | .784 |
| Josh Jung | 4.7 | .821 | .217 | .009 | .160 | .270 | .968 | .276 | .323 | .439 | .762 |
| Brandon Nimmo | 4.6 | .752 | .181 | .021 | .153 | .412 | .921 | .270 | .344 | .436 | .780 |
| Jake Burger | 4.5 | .672 | .180 | .008 | .196 | .254 | 1.050 | .254 | .303 | .442 | .745 |
| Justin Foscue | 4.3 | .584 | .209 | .006 | .119 | .370 | .825 | .234 | .308 | .381 | .689 |
| Ezequiel Duran | 4.2 | .717 | .210 | .020 | .091 | .227 | .938 | .261 | .307 | .392 | .700 |
| Kyle Higashioka | 4.1 | .577 | .155 | .010 | .146 | .264 | .974 | .231 | .285 | .390 | .675 |
| Alejandro Osuna | 4.0 | .692 | .167 | .012 | .073 | .357 | .720 | .262 | .337 | .375 | .713 |
| Nicky Lopez | 3.9 | .718 | .130 | .020 | .024 | .305 | .608 | .250 | .317 | .318 | .635 |
Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Springer | 4.5 | .688 | .177 | .009 | .155 | .408 | .880 | .251 | .327 | .413 | .739 |
| Nathan Lukes | 4.4 | .830 | .207 | .020 | .078 | .301 | .697 | .278 | .334 | .395 | .729 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 4.3 | .778 | .203 | .004 | .169 | .445 | .569 | .301 | .379 | .488 | .867 |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 4.2 | .585 | .163 | .006 | .172 | .310 | .983 | .239 | .303 | .416 | .719 |
| Daulton Varsho | 4.1 | .530 | .171 | .030 | .153 | .301 | 1.000 | .233 | .296 | .415 | .711 |
| Ernie Clement | 4.0 | .786 | .209 | .019 | .073 | .152 | .408 | .283 | .315 | .404 | .719 |
| Jesús Sánchez | 3.9 | .611 | .176 | .013 | .118 | .271 | .915 | .255 | .313 | .409 | .722 |
| Brandon Valenzuela | 3.8 | .537 | .134 | .006 | .087 | .277 | .979 | .219 | .282 | .337 | .619 |
| Andrés Giménez | 3.7 | .623 | .153 | .013 | .073 | .166 | .662 | .252 | .303 | .369 | .673 |
Data notes: home starter Patrick Corbin: only 68 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections