1.9% edge · Toronto Blue Jays
Houston Astros win
43.6%
Toronto Blue Jays win
56.4%
Fair line (home)
-129
Proj. total
9.15
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Houston Astros (mean 4.38)Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.78)
Totals
O/U line
8.5
Proj. total
9.15
Over
52.5%
Under
47.5%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 43.6% | +115 | +129 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 56.4% | -125 | -129 |
Houston Astros — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Altuve | 4.8 | .806 | .203 | .009 | .154 | .335 | .868 | .266 | .323 | .421 | .744 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 4.7 | .752 | .225 | .010 | .256 | .518 | .832 | .305 | .391 | .553 | .944 |
| Christian Walker | 4.5 | .610 | .166 | .012 | .211 | .314 | 1.114 | .239 | .301 | .436 | .737 |
| Isaac Paredes | 4.4 | .625 | .176 | .009 | .182 | .415 | .777 | .251 | .335 | .439 | .775 |
| Yainer Diaz | 4.3 | .782 | .203 | .012 | .150 | .150 | .714 | .275 | .304 | .438 | .742 |
| Cam Smith | 4.2 | .640 | .174 | .025 | .107 | .313 | 1.124 | .244 | .308 | .385 | .693 |
| Taylor Trammell | 4.1 | .495 | .156 | .024 | .120 | .374 | 1.303 | .214 | .293 | .367 | .659 |
| Brice Matthews | 4.0 | .551 | .121 | .028 | .113 | .276 | 1.304 | .220 | .281 | .360 | .641 |
| Raynel Delgado | 3.9 | .633 | .145 | .017 | .042 | .243 | .954 | .232 | .286 | .317 | .603 |
Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Springer | 4.7 | .689 | .172 | .008 | .194 | .555 | .847 | .261 | .357 | .450 | .807 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 4.6 | .787 | .210 | .004 | .217 | .629 | .545 | .313 | .415 | .536 | .950 |
| Jesús Sánchez | 4.5 | .674 | .208 | .015 | .167 | .419 | .986 | .266 | .341 | .450 | .791 |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 4.3 | .610 | .170 | .005 | .219 | .420 | .947 | .259 | .338 | .475 | .813 |
| Brandon Valenzuela | 4.2 | .578 | .147 | .005 | .133 | .407 | 1.042 | .227 | .308 | .373 | .681 |
| Daulton Varsho | 4.1 | .527 | .157 | .031 | .180 | .410 | .944 | .243 | .324 | .449 | .774 |
| Luis Urías | 4.0 | .608 | .157 | .015 | .106 | .446 | .688 | .253 | .350 | .398 | .748 |
| Myles Straw | 3.9 | .670 | .149 | .014 | .041 | .370 | .747 | .248 | .323 | .333 | .656 |
| Andrés Giménez | 3.8 | .641 | .149 | .015 | .095 | .250 | .652 | .260 | .327 | .395 | .722 |
Data notes: home starter Shane Bieber: only 0 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Shane Bieber: only 0 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections