2.3% edge · Toronto Blue Jays
Houston Astros win
43.3%
Toronto Blue Jays win
56.7%
Fair line (home)
-131
Proj. total
7.96
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Houston Astros (mean 3.80)Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.16)
Totals
O/U line
7
Proj. total
7.96
Over
48.6%
Under
39.7%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 43.3% | +115 | +131 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 56.7% | -124 | -131 |
Houston Astros — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Peña | 4.7 | .776 | .196 | .013 | .108 | .300 | 1.038 | .251 | .310 | .377 | .686 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 4.6 | .642 | .185 | .006 | .212 | .666 | 1.011 | .269 | .383 | .483 | .866 |
| Christian Walker | 4.5 | .521 | .150 | .010 | .173 | .415 | 1.359 | .211 | .293 | .382 | .675 |
| Isaac Paredes | 4.4 | .536 | .154 | .005 | .150 | .519 | .958 | .223 | .330 | .385 | .714 |
| Jose Altuve | 4.3 | .651 | .152 | .006 | .109 | .394 | .982 | .237 | .312 | .364 | .676 |
| Yainer Diaz | 4.2 | .683 | .174 | .010 | .123 | .193 | .907 | .249 | .288 | .390 | .678 |
| Joey Loperfido | 4.1 | .554 | .147 | .017 | .072 | .302 | 1.405 | .211 | .279 | .317 | .596 |
| Jake Meyers | 4.0 | .582 | .144 | .015 | .065 | .327 | 1.020 | .224 | .296 | .327 | .623 |
| Raynel Delgado | 3.8 | .554 | .131 | .014 | .033 | .298 | 1.133 | .208 | .276 | .281 | .557 |
Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Springer | 4.6 | .667 | .161 | .007 | .151 | .518 | 1.025 | .246 | .338 | .402 | .740 |
| Nathan Lukes | 4.5 | .797 | .195 | .015 | .073 | .400 | .826 | .267 | .339 | .377 | .716 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 4.4 | .731 | .195 | .003 | .161 | .568 | .669 | .289 | .388 | .471 | .859 |
| Alejandro Kirk | 4.3 | .717 | .160 | .007 | .121 | .496 | .650 | .268 | .359 | .411 | .770 |
| Daulton Varsho | 4.2 | .496 | .151 | .032 | .139 | .390 | 1.125 | .218 | .298 | .386 | .684 |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 4.1 | .519 | .152 | .006 | .160 | .389 | 1.069 | .230 | .311 | .407 | .718 |
| Jesús Sánchez | 4.0 | .566 | .169 | .011 | .120 | .346 | 1.038 | .243 | .316 | .398 | .714 |
| Ernie Clement | 3.8 | .720 | .190 | .017 | .070 | .191 | .464 | .276 | .317 | .396 | .713 |
| Andrés Giménez | 3.7 | .574 | .139 | .014 | .069 | .225 | .769 | .234 | .298 | .344 | .642 |
Data notes: away starter Hunter Brown: only 31 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Hunter Brown: only 33 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections