0.5% edge · Texas Rangers
San Diego Padres win
45.3%
Texas Rangers win
54.7%
Fair line (home)
-121
Proj. total
8.67
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
San Diego Padres (mean 4.19)Texas Rangers (mean 4.48)
Totals
O/U line
7.5
Proj. total
8.67
Over
55.8%
Under
44.2%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 45.3% | +114 | +121 |
| Texas Rangers | 54.7% | -123 | -121 |
San Diego Padres — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 4.8 | .735 | .182 | .016 | .200 | .542 | 1.021 | .271 | .360 | .466 | .825 |
| Samad Taylor | 4.7 | .717 | .131 | .033 | .087 | .448 | 1.242 | .232 | .311 | .341 | .652 |
| Manny Machado | 4.5 | .651 | .165 | .004 | .208 | .411 | 1.023 | .250 | .321 | .443 | .764 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 4.4 | .769 | .163 | .005 | .113 | .404 | .851 | .263 | .335 | .391 | .726 |
| Jackson Merrill | 4.3 | .636 | .180 | .030 | .158 | .334 | .996 | .253 | .315 | .433 | .748 |
| Ty France | 4.2 | .667 | .149 | .017 | .117 | .299 | .912 | .248 | .320 | .388 | .707 |
| Nick Solak | 4.1 | .698 | .135 | .012 | .091 | .348 | .804 | .252 | .325 | .368 | .693 |
| Jase Bowen | 4.0 | .528 | .123 | .029 | .109 | .282 | 1.263 | .213 | .275 | .350 | .625 |
| Blake Hunt | 3.9 | .479 | .143 | .017 | .102 | .288 | 1.113 | .209 | .276 | .345 | .621 |
Texas Rangers — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joc Pederson | 4.6 | .621 | .144 | .025 | .207 | .599 | .993 | .254 | .366 | .462 | .827 |
| Josh Jung | 4.5 | .784 | .210 | .010 | .163 | .307 | .967 | .280 | .336 | .453 | .789 |
| Wyatt Langford | 4.4 | .637 | .169 | .030 | .166 | .563 | .966 | .264 | .364 | .455 | .819 |
| Brandon Nimmo | 4.3 | .677 | .160 | .018 | .153 | .470 | .884 | .268 | .359 | .442 | .801 |
| Ezequiel Duran | 4.2 | .695 | .203 | .021 | .102 | .280 | .961 | .263 | .320 | .405 | .725 |
| Jarred Kelenic | 4.1 | .534 | .161 | .013 | .124 | .396 | 1.230 | .226 | .304 | .377 | .682 |
| Jake Burger | 4.0 | .582 | .161 | .007 | .191 | .273 | .980 | .257 | .317 | .461 | .779 |
| Nicky Lopez | 3.9 | .695 | .134 | .017 | .025 | .359 | .641 | .252 | .330 | .322 | .652 |
| Kyle Higashioka | 3.8 | .514 | .134 | .013 | .147 | .278 | .924 | .235 | .297 | .409 | .707 |
Data notes: game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections