0.7% edge · Texas Rangers
San Diego Padres win
40.2%
Texas Rangers win
59.8%
Fair line (home)
-149
Proj. total
8.58
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
San Diego Padres (mean 3.93)Texas Rangers (mean 4.66)
Totals
O/U line
7
Proj. total
8.58
Over
54.6%
Under
33.7%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 40.2% | +140 | +149 |
| Texas Rangers | 59.8% | -152 | -149 |
San Diego Padres — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 4.7 | .711 | .172 | .018 | .202 | .401 | 1.083 | .260 | .329 | .452 | .782 |
| Samad Taylor | 4.6 | .697 | .141 | .029 | .096 | .342 | 1.289 | .229 | .291 | .345 | .636 |
| Jackson Merrill | 4.5 | .634 | .175 | .032 | .171 | .266 | 1.103 | .243 | .292 | .423 | .716 |
| Manny Machado | 4.3 | .629 | .156 | .003 | .205 | .304 | 1.047 | .246 | .301 | .439 | .741 |
| Gavin Sheets | 4.3 | .574 | .163 | .006 | .152 | .317 | 1.041 | .229 | .292 | .391 | .682 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 4.1 | .693 | .152 | .006 | .116 | .287 | .855 | .253 | .309 | .387 | .696 |
| Ty France | 4.0 | .649 | .137 | .016 | .116 | .209 | .907 | .245 | .301 | .383 | .684 |
| Will Wagner | 3.9 | .637 | .145 | .015 | .068 | .352 | .791 | .245 | .318 | .352 | .670 |
| Rodolfo Durán | 3.8 | .489 | .129 | .014 | .124 | .211 | 1.049 | .212 | .262 | .360 | .622 |
Texas Rangers — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joc Pederson | 4.6 | .633 | .141 | .025 | .235 | .585 | .905 | .261 | .370 | .488 | .857 |
| Josh Jung | 4.5 | .787 | .209 | .012 | .175 | .297 | .884 | .283 | .337 | .464 | .801 |
| Wyatt Langford | 4.4 | .637 | .179 | .028 | .182 | .537 | .893 | .268 | .364 | .471 | .835 |
| Brandon Nimmo | 4.3 | .701 | .168 | .022 | .164 | .448 | .824 | .279 | .365 | .465 | .830 |
| Ezequiel Duran | 4.2 | .716 | .204 | .022 | .101 | .264 | .899 | .268 | .322 | .409 | .731 |
| Alejandro Osuna | 4.1 | .698 | .166 | .013 | .081 | .420 | .706 | .265 | .353 | .386 | .739 |
| Jake Burger | 4.0 | .578 | .164 | .009 | .201 | .264 | .913 | .258 | .317 | .471 | .788 |
| Nicky Lopez | 3.9 | .705 | .132 | .020 | .024 | .357 | .593 | .253 | .330 | .323 | .653 |
| Elias Díaz | 3.8 | .545 | .145 | .006 | .109 | .266 | .865 | .232 | .293 | .372 | .665 |
Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections