0.3% edge · Minnesota Twins
Minnesota Twins win
46.1%
Texas Rangers win
53.9%
Fair line (home)
-117
Proj. total
9.06
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Minnesota Twins (mean 4.46)Texas Rangers (mean 4.59)
Totals
O/U line
8
Proj. total
9.06
Over
52.0%
Under
40.5%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 46.1% | +114 | +117 |
| Texas Rangers | 53.9% | -123 | -117 |
Minnesota Twins — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Larnach | 4.8 | .727 | .187 | .018 | .142 | .524 | 1.027 | .256 | .343 | .411 | .754 |
| Byron Buxton | 4.7 | .587 | .190 | .037 | .280 | .349 | 1.179 | .258 | .322 | .518 | .840 |
| Kody Clemens | 4.5 | .608 | .186 | .037 | .200 | .320 | .991 | .247 | .308 | .453 | .762 |
| Royce Lewis | 4.4 | .641 | .183 | .005 | .202 | .336 | .934 | .253 | .314 | .450 | .764 |
| Josh Bell | 4.3 | .666 | .157 | .009 | .145 | .408 | .839 | .252 | .329 | .409 | .738 |
| Brooks Lee | 4.2 | .684 | .154 | .019 | .141 | .275 | .669 | .255 | .309 | .412 | .721 |
| Luke Keaschall | 4.1 | .714 | .182 | .016 | .063 | .371 | .613 | .266 | .343 | .376 | .719 |
| Tristan Gray | 4.0 | .533 | .153 | .018 | .133 | .264 | 1.094 | .226 | .284 | .385 | .669 |
| Alex Jackson | 3.9 | .457 | .155 | .009 | .145 | .246 | 1.177 | .213 | .272 | .383 | .655 |
Texas Rangers — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joc Pederson | 4.6 | .653 | .155 | .027 | .239 | .465 | .968 | .264 | .349 | .490 | .840 |
| Josh Jung | 4.5 | .816 | .219 | .008 | .173 | .229 | .930 | .287 | .329 | .465 | .793 |
| Wyatt Langford | 4.4 | .659 | .177 | .027 | .180 | .441 | .944 | .267 | .346 | .465 | .811 |
| Brandon Nimmo | 4.3 | .717 | .176 | .019 | .168 | .355 | .860 | .279 | .348 | .465 | .813 |
| Ezequiel Duran | 4.2 | .728 | .216 | .024 | .099 | .193 | .928 | .271 | .311 | .413 | .724 |
| Jake Burger | 4.1 | .627 | .173 | .006 | .217 | .208 | .960 | .268 | .313 | .486 | .800 |
| Josh Smith | 4.0 | .659 | .165 | .013 | .088 | .355 | .714 | .261 | .338 | .389 | .727 |
| Alejandro Osuna | 3.9 | .676 | .174 | .012 | .084 | .316 | .691 | .271 | .341 | .400 | .741 |
| Elias Díaz | 3.7 | .574 | .148 | .006 | .119 | .213 | .875 | .242 | .291 | .390 | .681 |
Data notes: away starter Zebby Matthews: only 60 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections