1.1% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks win
45.5%
Tampa Bay Rays win
54.5%
Fair line (home)
-120
Proj. total
8.84
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.32)Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.52)
Totals
O/U line
8.5
Proj. total
8.84
Over
49.4%
Under
50.6%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 45.5% | +121 | +120 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 54.5% | -131 | -120 |
Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte | 4.8 | .712 | .199 | .025 | .189 | .504 | .814 | .263 | .348 | .454 | .802 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 4.7 | .758 | .155 | .034 | .091 | .602 | .637 | .256 | .360 | .378 | .738 |
| Corbin Carroll | 4.6 | .566 | .166 | .091 | .175 | .538 | .986 | .248 | .345 | .466 | .810 |
| Gabriel Moreno | 4.5 | .757 | .183 | .011 | .116 | .475 | .805 | .266 | .349 | .404 | .753 |
| Adrian Del Castillo | 4.4 | .543 | .181 | .011 | .120 | .378 | 1.282 | .214 | .287 | .355 | .642 |
| Nolan Arenado | 4.3 | .650 | .166 | .009 | .130 | .342 | .720 | .245 | .313 | .392 | .705 |
| Max Kepler | 4.2 | .559 | .150 | .017 | .115 | .415 | .881 | .226 | .310 | .368 | .678 |
| LuJames Groover | 4.1 | .662 | .166 | .011 | .065 | .387 | .810 | .248 | .327 | .353 | .681 |
| Tommy Troy | 4.0 | .608 | .147 | .026 | .058 | .376 | .912 | .237 | .316 | .343 | .659 |
Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yandy Díaz | 4.7 | .909 | .209 | .015 | .149 | .478 | .529 | .309 | .388 | .475 | .863 |
| Jonathan Aranda | 4.6 | .779 | .188 | .005 | .144 | .579 | .954 | .284 | .385 | .445 | .830 |
| Junior Caminero | 4.5 | .719 | .205 | .006 | .245 | .420 | .641 | .292 | .364 | .529 | .892 |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | 4.4 | .702 | .186 | .020 | .101 | .350 | .814 | .253 | .318 | .386 | .705 |
| Chandler Simpson | 4.3 | .994 | .133 | .054 | .016 | .248 | .377 | .300 | .343 | .372 | .715 |
| Cedric Mullins | 4.2 | .608 | .169 | .022 | .108 | .411 | .749 | .245 | .328 | .391 | .719 |
| Taylor Walls | 4.0 | .577 | .146 | .038 | .045 | .452 | .840 | .227 | .319 | .328 | .647 |
| Richie Palacios | 3.9 | .605 | .157 | .032 | .057 | .465 | .663 | .249 | .347 | .364 | .711 |
| Hunter Feduccia | 3.8 | .549 | .142 | .021 | .058 | .465 | .890 | .232 | .331 | .340 | .671 |
Data notes: home starter Cole Sulser: only 61 BF vs RHB this season · away starter Jose Cabrera: only 6 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Jose Cabrera: only 12 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections