2.8% edge · Kansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals win
40.4%
Tampa Bay Rays win
59.6%
Fair line (home)
-148
Proj. total
8.39
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Kansas City Royals (mean 3.85)Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.54)
Totals
O/U line
7.5
Proj. total
8.39
Over
52.6%
Under
47.4%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals | 40.4% | +156 | +148 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 59.6% | -184 | -148 |
Kansas City Royals — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Jensen | 4.8 | .610 | .187 | .015 | .144 | .497 | 1.276 | .227 | .312 | .380 | .692 |
| Nick Loftin | 4.6 | .686 | .178 | .029 | .089 | .484 | .719 | .240 | .330 | .364 | .694 |
| Jac Caglianone | 4.5 | .649 | .181 | .019 | .183 | .379 | 1.119 | .252 | .324 | .440 | .763 |
| Lane Thomas | 4.4 | .606 | .178 | .013 | .117 | .423 | 1.099 | .232 | .315 | .374 | .689 |
| Josh Rojas | 4.3 | .634 | .182 | .014 | .069 | .397 | .900 | .231 | .306 | .338 | .644 |
| Salvador Perez | 4.2 | .604 | .146 | .003 | .180 | .227 | .861 | .239 | .292 | .416 | .708 |
| Isaac Collins | 4.1 | .542 | .151 | .022 | .072 | .516 | .971 | .224 | .334 | .342 | .676 |
| Starling Marte | 4.0 | .693 | .157 | .013 | .084 | .275 | .902 | .260 | .324 | .379 | .703 |
| Tyler Tolbert | 3.9 | .569 | .145 | .015 | .040 | .260 | 1.018 | .216 | .278 | .299 | .577 |
Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yandy Díaz | 4.7 | .901 | .210 | .018 | .162 | .467 | .588 | .312 | .389 | .489 | .878 |
| Jonathan Aranda | 4.5 | .761 | .194 | .007 | .161 | .532 | 1.067 | .284 | .377 | .458 | .835 |
| Junior Caminero | 4.4 | .708 | .194 | .007 | .270 | .403 | .716 | .294 | .361 | .548 | .909 |
| Richie Palacios | 4.3 | .690 | .174 | .035 | .071 | .482 | .798 | .255 | .347 | .375 | .722 |
| Chandler Simpson | 4.2 | .996 | .130 | .061 | .019 | .241 | .425 | .304 | .346 | .382 | .728 |
| Cedric Mullins | 4.1 | .599 | .177 | .021 | .119 | .371 | .826 | .246 | .321 | .401 | .722 |
| Taylor Walls | 4.0 | .582 | .141 | .036 | .051 | .422 | .913 | .227 | .313 | .330 | .643 |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | 3.9 | .618 | .166 | .017 | .103 | .298 | .814 | .253 | .315 | .395 | .709 |
| Hunter Feduccia | 3.8 | .551 | .143 | .017 | .065 | .428 | .946 | .234 | .326 | .347 | .672 |
Data notes: home starter Casey Legumina: only 59 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Casey Legumina: only 74 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections