1.5% edge · Kansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals win
38.3%
Tampa Bay Rays win
61.7%
Fair line (home)
-161
Proj. total
8.16
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Kansas City Royals (mean 3.62)Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.54)
Totals
O/U line
8
Proj. total
8.16
Over
42.1%
Under
49.4%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals | 38.3% | +166 | +161 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 61.7% | -182 | -161 |
Kansas City Royals — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lane Thomas | 4.7 | .629 | .184 | .013 | .122 | .434 | 1.263 | .227 | .306 | .365 | .671 |
| Nick Loftin | 4.5 | .676 | .177 | .032 | .082 | .447 | .791 | .239 | .323 | .359 | .682 |
| Jac Caglianone | 4.5 | .627 | .173 | .018 | .180 | .351 | 1.193 | .246 | .313 | .431 | .744 |
| Salvador Perez | 4.3 | .628 | .157 | .005 | .176 | .213 | .968 | .237 | .285 | .408 | .693 |
| Carter Jensen | 4.2 | .542 | .160 | .016 | .123 | .404 | 1.269 | .221 | .298 | .368 | .666 |
| Starling Marte | 4.1 | .709 | .159 | .011 | .090 | .255 | 1.036 | .254 | .310 | .372 | .682 |
| Michael Massey | 4.0 | .623 | .178 | .009 | .115 | .193 | .800 | .243 | .284 | .385 | .670 |
| Tyler Tolbert | 3.9 | .574 | .137 | .014 | .041 | .255 | 1.108 | .212 | .271 | .291 | .563 |
| Kameron Misner | 3.8 | .420 | .146 | .017 | .086 | .372 | 1.305 | .198 | .281 | .327 | .608 |
Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yandy Díaz | 4.7 | .887 | .202 | .013 | .145 | .541 | .634 | .304 | .392 | .465 | .858 |
| Jonathan Aranda | 4.6 | .731 | .189 | .004 | .146 | .635 | 1.088 | .275 | .386 | .439 | .825 |
| Cedric Mullins | 4.5 | .620 | .174 | .024 | .117 | .495 | .904 | .237 | .330 | .383 | .713 |
| Junior Caminero | 4.4 | .679 | .184 | .006 | .227 | .465 | .733 | .284 | .364 | .511 | .875 |
| Richie Palacios | 4.3 | .648 | .152 | .034 | .060 | .562 | .801 | .246 | .355 | .356 | .711 |
| Jonny DeLuca | 4.2 | .642 | .187 | .029 | .102 | .334 | .817 | .255 | .322 | .401 | .723 |
| Chandler Simpson | 4.0 | .923 | .123 | .053 | .015 | .274 | .414 | .297 | .348 | .371 | .719 |
| Taylor Walls | 3.9 | .544 | .131 | .031 | .046 | .485 | .898 | .220 | .321 | .317 | .639 |
| Hunter Feduccia | 3.8 | .531 | .139 | .020 | .063 | .510 | .972 | .230 | .338 | .342 | .681 |
Data notes: home starter Shane McClanahan: only 51 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Luinder Avila: only 68 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections