0.8% edge · Tampa Bay Rays
Washington Nationals win
42.5%
Tampa Bay Rays win
57.5%
Fair line (home)
-135
Proj. total
8.25
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Washington Nationals (mean 3.89)Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.36)
Totals
O/U line
8.5
Proj. total
8.25
Over
44.0%
Under
56.0%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals | 42.5% | +126 | +135 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 57.5% | -137 | -135 |
Washington Nationals — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Wood | 4.7 | .587 | .193 | .007 | .209 | .668 | 1.459 | .247 | .358 | .454 | .812 |
| Luis García Jr. | 4.6 | .771 | .204 | .028 | .140 | .255 | .777 | .262 | .305 | .418 | .722 |
| José Tena | 4.5 | .681 | .186 | .024 | .088 | .326 | 1.265 | .235 | .295 | .355 | .650 |
| CJ Abrams | 4.4 | .615 | .181 | .030 | .148 | .341 | .927 | .245 | .318 | .417 | .734 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 4.3 | .700 | .185 | .004 | .121 | .204 | .567 | .249 | .292 | .386 | .678 |
| Daylen Lile | 4.2 | .666 | .179 | .052 | .090 | .304 | .809 | .256 | .316 | .400 | .716 |
| Nasim Nuñez | 4.1 | .632 | .100 | .015 | .043 | .399 | 1.004 | .216 | .298 | .287 | .584 |
| Jorbit Vivas | 4.0 | .578 | .147 | .007 | .050 | .414 | .657 | .224 | .320 | .313 | .633 |
| Jacob Young | 3.9 | .652 | .129 | .023 | .059 | .268 | .773 | .244 | .305 | .343 | .649 |
Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yandy Díaz | 4.7 | .847 | .196 | .013 | .162 | .530 | .616 | .298 | .386 | .472 | .858 |
| Jonathan Aranda | 4.5 | .692 | .183 | .005 | .153 | .620 | 1.067 | .268 | .378 | .437 | .815 |
| Jonny DeLuca | 4.4 | .635 | .191 | .032 | .113 | .353 | .882 | .240 | .309 | .387 | .697 |
| Junior Caminero | 4.3 | .637 | .175 | .007 | .257 | .456 | .711 | .280 | .360 | .530 | .890 |
| Cedric Mullins | 4.2 | .562 | .156 | .019 | .108 | .460 | .858 | .227 | .318 | .367 | .685 |
| Chandler Simpson | 4.1 | .922 | .118 | .054 | .015 | .282 | .427 | .290 | .342 | .362 | .704 |
| Richie Palacios | 4.0 | .599 | .145 | .029 | .057 | .525 | .745 | .242 | .351 | .351 | .702 |
| Taylor Walls | 3.9 | .510 | .128 | .028 | .042 | .456 | .891 | .207 | .306 | .298 | .604 |
| Hunter Feduccia | 3.8 | .507 | .133 | .020 | .058 | .495 | .986 | .220 | .327 | .326 | .653 |
Data notes: away starter PJ Poulin: only 56 BF vs LHB this season · away starter PJ Poulin: only 63 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections