3.4% edge · Tampa Bay Rays
Washington Nationals win
43.9%
Tampa Bay Rays win
56.1%
Fair line (home)
-128
Proj. total
8.32
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Washington Nationals (mean 3.97)Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.35)
Totals
O/U line
8
Proj. total
8.32
Over
43.8%
Under
48.5%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals | 43.9% | +107 | +128 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 56.1% | -116 | -128 |
Washington Nationals — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Wood | 4.7 | .574 | .189 | .008 | .219 | .650 | 1.416 | .246 | .355 | .459 | .814 |
| Curtis Mead | 4.6 | .662 | .191 | .015 | .138 | .380 | .957 | .242 | .316 | .394 | .710 |
| Andrés Chaparro | 4.5 | .559 | .181 | .004 | .161 | .400 | 1.102 | .223 | .298 | .388 | .686 |
| CJ Abrams | 4.4 | .615 | .170 | .029 | .158 | .326 | .902 | .244 | .314 | .420 | .734 |
| Dylan Crews | 4.3 | .604 | .148 | .021 | .132 | .306 | 1.029 | .230 | .296 | .380 | .675 |
| Daylen Lile | 4.2 | .672 | .177 | .051 | .099 | .288 | .769 | .259 | .317 | .408 | .724 |
| Jacob Young | 4.1 | .674 | .137 | .024 | .069 | .288 | .803 | .242 | .305 | .347 | .652 |
| Nasim Nuñez | 4.0 | .619 | .093 | .014 | .037 | .370 | .945 | .214 | .293 | .280 | .573 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 3.8 | .605 | .159 | .004 | .103 | .181 | .510 | .241 | .285 | .372 | .657 |
Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yandy Díaz | 4.7 | .899 | .207 | .012 | .148 | .462 | .635 | .307 | .386 | .471 | .856 |
| Jonathan Aranda | 4.5 | .717 | .190 | .005 | .136 | .541 | 1.120 | .267 | .368 | .422 | .790 |
| Cedric Mullins | 4.5 | .633 | .177 | .024 | .108 | .422 | .926 | .237 | .320 | .375 | .695 |
| Junior Caminero | 4.3 | .677 | .189 | .006 | .236 | .402 | .751 | .284 | .356 | .517 | .874 |
| Richie Palacios | 4.2 | .657 | .149 | .033 | .058 | .493 | .813 | .244 | .345 | .351 | .695 |
| Chandler Simpson | 4.1 | .951 | .127 | .055 | .016 | .251 | .439 | .298 | .345 | .372 | .716 |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | 4.0 | .616 | .171 | .018 | .098 | .322 | .881 | .247 | .313 | .383 | .697 |
| Hunter Feduccia | 3.9 | .551 | .142 | .021 | .063 | .456 | 1.020 | .227 | .324 | .336 | .660 |
| Taylor Walls | 3.8 | .519 | .125 | .032 | .045 | .418 | .889 | .216 | .310 | .314 | .623 |
Data notes: home starter Ian Seymour: only 67 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections