4.0% edge · Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins win
48.1%
St. Louis Cardinals win
51.8%
Fair line (home)
-108
Proj. total
9.29
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Miami Marlins (mean 4.68)St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.61)
Totals
O/U line
8.5
Proj. total
9.29
Over
53.0%
Under
47.0%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | 48.1% | +122 | +108 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 51.8% | -132 | -108 |
Miami Marlins — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Edwards | 4.9 | 1.116 | .174 | .063 | .042 | .501 | .524 | .317 | .390 | .414 | .803 |
| Otto Lopez | 4.8 | 1.018 | .243 | .028 | .073 | .339 | .591 | .306 | .359 | .422 | .781 |
| Kyle Stowers | 4.7 | .685 | .210 | .031 | .139 | .487 | 1.145 | .255 | .341 | .421 | .762 |
| Heriberto Hernández | 4.6 | .695 | .177 | .032 | .128 | .490 | 1.070 | .253 | .339 | .407 | .746 |
| Owen Caissie | 4.5 | .669 | .215 | .014 | .117 | .448 | 1.286 | .253 | .334 | .401 | .735 |
| Jakob Marsee | 4.4 | .660 | .163 | .045 | .071 | .565 | .816 | .250 | .356 | .374 | .730 |
| Griffin Conine | 4.3 | .615 | .172 | .012 | .137 | .423 | 1.180 | .246 | .328 | .405 | .733 |
| Javier Sanoja | 4.2 | .770 | .229 | .030 | .056 | .274 | .365 | .281 | .332 | .399 | .731 |
| Joe Mack | 4.0 | .630 | .156 | .010 | .087 | .335 | .961 | .240 | .310 | .359 | .669 |
St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Wetherholt | 4.7 | .792 | .184 | .010 | .138 | .516 | .744 | .274 | .366 | .424 | .790 |
| Iván Herrera | 4.6 | .779 | .166 | .011 | .138 | .553 | .783 | .278 | .382 | .432 | .813 |
| Alec Burleson | 4.5 | .811 | .188 | .008 | .168 | .385 | .603 | .289 | .355 | .463 | .818 |
| Jordan Walker | 4.4 | .676 | .195 | .009 | .168 | .359 | 1.061 | .263 | .330 | .443 | .774 |
| Lars Nootbaar | 4.3 | .631 | .166 | .013 | .130 | .601 | .791 | .258 | .367 | .418 | .785 |
| Masyn Winn | 4.2 | .685 | .183 | .024 | .085 | .348 | .721 | .258 | .329 | .387 | .716 |
| Bryan Torres | 4.1 | .755 | .149 | .018 | .047 | .493 | .688 | .273 | .366 | .365 | .731 |
| Jimmy Crooks | 4.0 | .577 | .133 | .010 | .109 | .360 | 1.053 | .233 | .311 | .369 | .680 |
| Nathan Church | 3.8 | .682 | .149 | .013 | .084 | .245 | .596 | .262 | .317 | .382 | .698 |
Data notes: away starter Ryan Gusto: only 51 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Ryan Gusto: only 33 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections