Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals

Merrill Kelly vs Andre Pallante · 2026-06-22 · 70°F

6.4% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks win

48.6%

St. Louis Cardinals win

51.4%

Fair line (home)

-106

Proj. total

9.41

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.77)St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.64)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.41

Over

54.3%

Under

45.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Arizona Diamondbacks	48.6%	+132	+106
St. Louis Cardinals	51.4%	-144	-106

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ketel Marte	4.9	.854	.217	.026	.150	.535	.632	.286	.371	.452	.823
Geraldo Perdomo	4.8	.887	.188	.043	.064	.623	.496	.284	.384	.396	.780
Corbin Carroll	4.7	.701	.195	.104	.143	.558	.812	.278	.371	.480	.851
Pavin Smith	4.6	.704	.200	.016	.085	.640	.981	.254	.361	.377	.738
Nolan Arenado	4.5	.778	.210	.012	.100	.365	.593	.268	.334	.398	.732
Adrian Del Castillo	4.4	.649	.210	.015	.097	.399	1.071	.244	.317	.377	.694
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	4.3	.785	.201	.017	.091	.286	.590	.275	.329	.403	.732
Tommy Troy	4.2	.749	.177	.035	.045	.393	.778	.268	.343	.370	.713
Tim Tawa	4.1	.611	.165	.027	.083	.356	.870	.240	.312	.367	.679

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.7	.827	.193	.011	.129	.478	.694	.280	.364	.425	.790
Iván Herrera	4.6	.832	.193	.013	.130	.506	.741	.292	.383	.444	.827
Alec Burleson	4.5	.834	.209	.008	.156	.333	.572	.294	.351	.463	.814
Jordan Walker	4.3	.726	.212	.011	.163	.329	1.008	.278	.338	.459	.797
Lars Nootbaar	4.3	.665	.168	.014	.128	.556	.756	.265	.365	.423	.788
Masyn Winn	4.2	.741	.188	.025	.078	.307	.679	.271	.332	.395	.727
Jimmy Crooks	4.0	.643	.154	.013	.104	.325	1.049	.248	.315	.382	.697
Blaze Jordan	3.9	.697	.188	.012	.094	.215	.491	.269	.314	.403	.717
Nathan Church	3.8	.736	.155	.015	.076	.217	.562	.276	.324	.391	.715

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections