1.0% edge · Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks win
45.9%
St. Louis Cardinals win
54.1%
Fair line (home)
-118
Proj. total
9.65
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 4.75)St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.91)
Totals
O/U line
9
Proj. total
9.65
Over
46.0%
Under
43.5%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 45.9% | +118 | +118 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 54.1% | -128 | -118 |
Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte | 4.9 | .862 | .233 | .029 | .182 | .411 | .617 | .295 | .361 | .484 | .844 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 4.8 | .878 | .187 | .047 | .083 | .488 | .494 | .282 | .363 | .407 | .770 |
| Corbin Carroll | 4.7 | .682 | .200 | .104 | .178 | .453 | .777 | .280 | .357 | .506 | .862 |
| Adrian Del Castillo | 4.5 | .704 | .228 | .012 | .113 | .319 | 1.083 | .251 | .307 | .391 | .698 |
| Max Kepler | 4.4 | .732 | .197 | .022 | .113 | .369 | .721 | .264 | .331 | .408 | .739 |
| Pavin Smith | 4.3 | .697 | .178 | .015 | .097 | .486 | .938 | .258 | .344 | .389 | .734 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | 4.2 | .793 | .201 | .017 | .116 | .223 | .556 | .284 | .327 | .430 | .758 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 4.1 | .801 | .163 | .041 | .067 | .179 | .366 | .275 | .313 | .389 | .702 |
| Tommy Troy | 4.0 | .729 | .174 | .035 | .057 | .295 | .730 | .271 | .331 | .385 | .716 |
St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Wetherholt | 4.7 | .843 | .203 | .011 | .141 | .461 | .735 | .286 | .367 | .441 | .808 |
| Iván Herrera | 4.6 | .844 | .191 | .014 | .135 | .499 | .751 | .294 | .384 | .449 | .833 |
| Alec Burleson | 4.5 | .872 | .202 | .009 | .174 | .346 | .576 | .304 | .362 | .484 | .846 |
| Jordan Walker | 4.4 | .742 | .211 | .011 | .173 | .323 | 1.035 | .282 | .340 | .468 | .808 |
| Lars Nootbaar | 4.3 | .679 | .185 | .013 | .130 | .552 | .753 | .272 | .370 | .434 | .804 |
| Masyn Winn | 4.2 | .757 | .190 | .023 | .086 | .313 | .688 | .276 | .338 | .405 | .742 |
| Nathan Church | 4.1 | .779 | .167 | .015 | .083 | .232 | .607 | .275 | .322 | .392 | .715 |
| Blaze Jordan | 4.0 | .718 | .195 | .011 | .099 | .216 | .489 | .276 | .321 | .414 | .735 |
| José Fermín | 3.8 | .651 | .185 | .008 | .072 | .402 | .463 | .271 | .357 | .395 | .752 |
Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections