6.1% edge · San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres win
51.8%
St. Louis Cardinals win
48.2%
Fair line (home)
+107
Proj. total
9.13
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
San Diego Padres (mean 4.78)St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.35)
Totals
O/U line
10.5
Proj. total
9.13
Over
34.4%
Under
65.6%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 51.8% | +115 | -107 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 48.2% | -124 | +107 |
San Diego Padres — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 4.9 | .864 | .208 | .018 | .177 | .537 | .807 | .293 | .377 | .473 | .850 |
| Samad Taylor | 4.8 | .838 | .162 | .037 | .080 | .448 | 1.013 | .259 | .333 | .370 | .703 |
| Jackson Merrill | 4.7 | .769 | .217 | .039 | .148 | .352 | .844 | .272 | .331 | .444 | .775 |
| Manny Machado | 4.6 | .741 | .192 | .003 | .186 | .414 | .791 | .271 | .340 | .453 | .794 |
| Gavin Sheets | 4.5 | .696 | .192 | .007 | .145 | .424 | .800 | .260 | .336 | .421 | .756 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 4.3 | .824 | .182 | .007 | .102 | .383 | .639 | .283 | .351 | .411 | .762 |
| Ty France | 4.2 | .758 | .174 | .017 | .106 | .290 | .701 | .275 | .343 | .412 | .755 |
| Will Wagner | 4.1 | .723 | .178 | .016 | .062 | .449 | .616 | .269 | .355 | .377 | .732 |
| Rodolfo Durán | 4.0 | .594 | .160 | .018 | .110 | .281 | .853 | .239 | .299 | .381 | .680 |
St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Wetherholt | 4.7 | .742 | .173 | .010 | .128 | .561 | .872 | .261 | .363 | .404 | .767 |
| Iván Herrera | 4.6 | .721 | .168 | .012 | .127 | .589 | .895 | .266 | .378 | .415 | .793 |
| Alec Burleson | 4.5 | .762 | .184 | .008 | .154 | .411 | .710 | .277 | .349 | .442 | .791 |
| Jordan Walker | 4.3 | .629 | .186 | .010 | .159 | .391 | 1.183 | .252 | .326 | .426 | .752 |
| Lars Nootbaar | 4.2 | .589 | .154 | .011 | .119 | .626 | .904 | .244 | .361 | .393 | .754 |
| Masyn Winn | 4.1 | .680 | .164 | .021 | .082 | .373 | .831 | .255 | .330 | .377 | .707 |
| Jimmy Crooks | 4.0 | .558 | .136 | .011 | .098 | .373 | 1.216 | .222 | .303 | .347 | .650 |
| Blaze Jordan | 3.9 | .641 | .170 | .012 | .098 | .252 | .590 | .254 | .308 | .388 | .697 |
| Nathan Church | 3.8 | .665 | .144 | .013 | .075 | .270 | .681 | .258 | .318 | .371 | .689 |
Data notes: away starter Bradgley Rodriguez: only 72 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Bradgley Rodriguez: only 68 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 86F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections