3.3% edge · San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres win
51.3%
St. Louis Cardinals win
48.7%
Fair line (home)
+105
Proj. total
9
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
San Diego Padres (mean 4.65)St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.35)
Totals
O/U line
8
Proj. total
9
Over
50.1%
Under
41.7%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 51.3% | +104 | -105 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 48.7% | -113 | +105 |
San Diego Padres — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 4.9 | .867 | .223 | .020 | .151 | .545 | .788 | .291 | .376 | .457 | .833 |
| Jackson Merrill | 4.8 | .805 | .230 | .041 | .127 | .378 | .833 | .273 | .335 | .431 | .766 |
| Manny Machado | 4.7 | .789 | .199 | .003 | .157 | .430 | .787 | .271 | .341 | .431 | .772 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 4.6 | .873 | .196 | .007 | .085 | .409 | .649 | .281 | .350 | .393 | .743 |
| Gavin Sheets | 4.5 | .693 | .210 | .008 | .125 | .411 | .799 | .257 | .330 | .405 | .736 |
| Samad Taylor | 4.4 | .782 | .152 | .033 | .062 | .425 | .889 | .263 | .340 | .367 | .707 |
| Ty France | 4.3 | .790 | .174 | .017 | .087 | .291 | .686 | .277 | .345 | .399 | .744 |
| Will Wagner | 4.2 | .766 | .175 | .017 | .052 | .453 | .587 | .276 | .361 | .376 | .737 |
| Rodolfo Durán | 4.0 | .598 | .158 | .020 | .092 | .291 | .831 | .234 | .296 | .362 | .658 |
St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Wetherholt | 4.7 | .739 | .179 | .008 | .131 | .513 | .857 | .261 | .355 | .406 | .761 |
| Iván Herrera | 4.5 | .735 | .160 | .013 | .137 | .553 | .904 | .269 | .374 | .422 | .796 |
| Alec Burleson | 4.4 | .767 | .190 | .008 | .169 | .377 | .702 | .282 | .349 | .460 | .809 |
| Jordan Walker | 4.3 | .632 | .180 | .010 | .161 | .367 | 1.191 | .251 | .320 | .425 | .745 |
| Lars Nootbaar | 4.2 | .602 | .148 | .012 | .130 | .586 | .915 | .248 | .358 | .404 | .762 |
| Masyn Winn | 4.1 | .672 | .170 | .022 | .088 | .338 | .826 | .255 | .324 | .383 | .707 |
| Jimmy Crooks | 4.0 | .559 | .134 | .013 | .104 | .355 | 1.228 | .224 | .300 | .355 | .655 |
| Blaze Jordan | 3.9 | .630 | .172 | .009 | .101 | .244 | .613 | .253 | .306 | .389 | .695 |
| Nathan Church | 3.8 | .667 | .144 | .012 | .078 | .245 | .671 | .259 | .315 | .374 | .689 |
Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections