8.1% edge · San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres win
49.1%
St. Louis Cardinals win
50.9%
Fair line (home)
-104
Proj. total
8.7
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
San Diego Padres (mean 4.40)St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.31)
Totals
O/U line
8.5
Proj. total
8.7
Over
48.0%
Under
52.0%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 49.1% | +139 | +104 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 50.9% | -151 | -104 |
San Diego Padres — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 4.8 | .819 | .198 | .017 | .164 | .517 | .902 | .280 | .364 | .449 | .814 |
| Jackson Merrill | 4.7 | .746 | .217 | .039 | .151 | .342 | .966 | .265 | .324 | .436 | .760 |
| Manny Machado | 4.6 | .741 | .185 | .004 | .174 | .391 | .905 | .262 | .329 | .432 | .761 |
| Gavin Sheets | 4.5 | .676 | .189 | .007 | .130 | .399 | .928 | .247 | .321 | .393 | .714 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 4.4 | .805 | .182 | .004 | .098 | .379 | .729 | .273 | .342 | .395 | .737 |
| Will Wagner | 4.3 | .763 | .172 | .014 | .062 | .448 | .714 | .266 | .349 | .367 | .717 |
| Ty France | 4.2 | .721 | .162 | .016 | .093 | .271 | .785 | .262 | .333 | .387 | .719 |
| Sung-Mun Song | 4.1 | .715 | .140 | .012 | .071 | .304 | .713 | .250 | .310 | .351 | .662 |
| Rodolfo Durán | 4.0 | .565 | .156 | .018 | .099 | .270 | .924 | .230 | .291 | .364 | .655 |
St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Wetherholt | 4.7 | .757 | .184 | .009 | .118 | .545 | .853 | .264 | .363 | .401 | .765 |
| Iván Herrera | 4.6 | .735 | .163 | .011 | .117 | .586 | .897 | .266 | .377 | .405 | .782 |
| Alec Burleson | 4.5 | .757 | .187 | .008 | .154 | .403 | .707 | .276 | .346 | .441 | .787 |
| Jordan Walker | 4.3 | .668 | .181 | .008 | .141 | .393 | 1.165 | .256 | .330 | .415 | .745 |
| Lars Nootbaar | 4.2 | .600 | .162 | .011 | .113 | .626 | .888 | .248 | .364 | .394 | .758 |
| Masyn Winn | 4.1 | .666 | .171 | .023 | .072 | .369 | .823 | .251 | .326 | .368 | .693 |
| Jimmy Crooks | 4.0 | .557 | .133 | .012 | .095 | .381 | 1.196 | .222 | .304 | .345 | .649 |
| Blaze Jordan | 3.9 | .624 | .179 | .013 | .088 | .254 | .595 | .250 | .305 | .379 | .684 |
| Nathan Church | 3.8 | .667 | .146 | .015 | .071 | .256 | .667 | .257 | .315 | .369 | .684 |
Data notes: away starter Wandy Peralta: only 65 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections