32.9% edge · Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox win
40.8%
Seattle Mariners win
59.2%
Fair line (home)
-145
Proj. total
7.48
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Boston Red Sox (mean 3.43)Seattle Mariners (mean 4.05)
Totals
O/U line
4.5
Proj. total
7.48
Over
77.5%
Under
22.5%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 40.8% | +1117 | +145 |
| Seattle Mariners | 59.2% | -2091 | -145 |
Boston Red Sox — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Seigler | 4.6 | .605 | .171 | .021 | .070 | .462 | 1.169 | .211 | .297 | .314 | .612 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | 4.5 | .678 | .196 | .035 | .120 | .186 | 1.093 | .240 | .281 | .387 | .668 |
| Mickey Gasper | 4.4 | .629 | .157 | .017 | .090 | .377 | 1.070 | .225 | .304 | .341 | .645 |
| Willson Contreras | 4.3 | .568 | .160 | .016 | .163 | .357 | 1.241 | .236 | .319 | .413 | .732 |
| Jarren Duran | 4.2 | .569 | .192 | .049 | .100 | .270 | 1.192 | .233 | .290 | .385 | .675 |
| Caleb Durbin | 4.1 | .621 | .201 | .019 | .075 | .248 | .586 | .243 | .307 | .366 | .673 |
| Marcelo Mayer | 4.0 | .574 | .175 | .018 | .093 | .225 | .955 | .230 | .279 | .361 | .640 |
| Connor Wong | 3.9 | .571 | .162 | .008 | .079 | .222 | 1.082 | .228 | .281 | .343 | .624 |
| Nate Eaton | 3.8 | .536 | .142 | .018 | .070 | .200 | 1.071 | .218 | .266 | .328 | .594 |
Seattle Mariners — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Crawford | 4.5 | .663 | .165 | .005 | .110 | .565 | .933 | .240 | .341 | .369 | .709 |
| Cal Raleigh | 4.4 | .455 | .133 | .002 | .244 | .465 | 1.282 | .214 | .304 | .436 | .740 |
| Julio Rodríguez | 4.3 | .681 | .174 | .013 | .205 | .324 | .962 | .272 | .335 | .479 | .814 |
| Josh Naylor | 4.2 | .695 | .172 | .004 | .155 | .362 | .676 | .269 | .337 | .438 | .776 |
| Rob Refsnyder | 4.1 | .548 | .145 | .007 | .125 | .405 | 1.189 | .226 | .311 | .372 | .682 |
| Dominic Canzone | 4.0 | .574 | .165 | .004 | .171 | .316 | .950 | .250 | .315 | .437 | .752 |
| Victor Robles | 3.9 | .611 | .171 | .013 | .052 | .275 | .906 | .239 | .307 | .339 | .646 |
| Weston Wilson | 3.8 | .489 | .116 | .010 | .113 | .362 | 1.104 | .215 | .296 | .356 | .652 |
| Cole Young | 3.6 | .581 | .148 | .018 | .065 | .344 | .697 | .249 | .329 | .366 | .695 |
Data notes: away starter Payton Tolle: only 65 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections