2.2% edge · Seattle Mariners
Boston Red Sox win
47.1%
Seattle Mariners win
52.9%
Fair line (home)
-112
Proj. total
8
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Boston Red Sox (mean 3.95)Seattle Mariners (mean 4.05)
Totals
O/U line
6.5
Proj. total
8
Over
60.9%
Under
39.1%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 47.1% | -101 | +112 |
| Seattle Mariners | 52.9% | -107 | -112 |
Boston Red Sox — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mickey Gasper | 4.7 | .710 | .181 | .018 | .099 | .450 | 1.026 | .239 | .322 | .360 | .682 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | 4.6 | .715 | .203 | .032 | .133 | .217 | .986 | .249 | .293 | .402 | .694 |
| Wilyer Abreu | 4.5 | .638 | .189 | .014 | .172 | .423 | 1.049 | .250 | .324 | .430 | .754 |
| Willson Contreras | 4.4 | .591 | .165 | .018 | .183 | .413 | 1.143 | .247 | .336 | .440 | .776 |
| Jarren Duran | 4.3 | .577 | .202 | .054 | .113 | .319 | 1.085 | .240 | .303 | .404 | .708 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 4.2 | .791 | .155 | .017 | .047 | .211 | .704 | .256 | .301 | .340 | .641 |
| Caleb Durbin | 4.1 | .644 | .197 | .017 | .075 | .266 | .513 | .250 | .316 | .372 | .688 |
| Carlos Narváez | 4.0 | .507 | .158 | .004 | .104 | .352 | 1.095 | .215 | .292 | .349 | .641 |
| Andruw Monasterio | 3.9 | .592 | .171 | .007 | .059 | .321 | .911 | .237 | .306 | .340 | .646 |
Seattle Mariners — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Refsnyder | 4.6 | .661 | .173 | .010 | .127 | .438 | 1.252 | .239 | .320 | .379 | .699 |
| Cal Raleigh | 4.5 | .503 | .148 | .002 | .213 | .470 | 1.232 | .220 | .309 | .421 | .730 |
| Julio Rodríguez | 4.3 | .745 | .196 | .013 | .179 | .305 | .928 | .283 | .340 | .473 | .813 |
| Josh Naylor | 4.2 | .743 | .187 | .004 | .139 | .346 | .633 | .278 | .342 | .436 | .779 |
| Dominic Canzone | 4.1 | .638 | .183 | .005 | .150 | .300 | .954 | .256 | .315 | .424 | .739 |
| Cole Young | 4.0 | .674 | .168 | .023 | .063 | .368 | .742 | .256 | .332 | .367 | .699 |
| Victor Robles | 3.9 | .656 | .192 | .011 | .044 | .269 | .871 | .252 | .317 | .348 | .665 |
| Colt Emerson | 3.8 | .559 | .156 | .015 | .080 | .310 | 1.001 | .235 | .306 | .359 | .665 |
| Weston Wilson | 3.7 | .514 | .133 | .011 | .104 | .340 | 1.031 | .229 | .305 | .370 | .675 |
Data notes: home starter Bryce Miller: only 67 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Bryce Miller: only 58 BF vs RHB this season · away starter Ranger Suarez: only 74 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections