0.1% edge · Seattle Mariners
Baltimore Orioles win
43.9%
Seattle Mariners win
56.1%
Fair line (home)
-128
Proj. total
8.29
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Baltimore Orioles (mean 3.97)Seattle Mariners (mean 4.32)
Totals
O/U line
8
Proj. total
8.29
Over
44.0%
Under
48.1%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 43.9% | +123 | +128 |
| Seattle Mariners | 56.1% | -134 | -128 |
Baltimore Orioles — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Ward | 4.7 | .630 | .185 | .010 | .159 | .462 | 1.190 | .235 | .317 | .398 | .715 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 4.6 | .645 | .188 | .029 | .169 | .364 | 1.107 | .247 | .313 | .427 | .739 |
| Adley Rutschman | 4.5 | .672 | .169 | .018 | .136 | .409 | .765 | .246 | .319 | .398 | .717 |
| Pete Alonso | 4.4 | .550 | .157 | .004 | .222 | .341 | 1.082 | .236 | .308 | .445 | .753 |
| Samuel Basallo | 4.3 | .569 | .151 | .013 | .188 | .294 | 1.135 | .234 | .292 | .421 | .713 |
| Leody Taveras | 4.2 | .646 | .134 | .026 | .095 | .262 | .977 | .232 | .284 | .353 | .637 |
| Colton Cowser | 4.0 | .504 | .135 | .007 | .140 | .333 | 1.319 | .215 | .288 | .370 | .658 |
| Blaze Alexander | 3.9 | .562 | .139 | .016 | .081 | .261 | 1.196 | .222 | .287 | .337 | .624 |
| Jackson Holliday | 3.8 | .541 | .127 | .024 | .092 | .338 | .958 | .228 | .302 | .359 | .661 |
Seattle Mariners — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Crawford | 4.6 | .709 | .168 | .006 | .117 | .620 | .884 | .253 | .360 | .388 | .748 |
| Cal Raleigh | 4.5 | .486 | .144 | .003 | .269 | .546 | 1.244 | .230 | .331 | .475 | .805 |
| Josh Naylor | 4.4 | .753 | .188 | .003 | .183 | .392 | .630 | .284 | .354 | .472 | .825 |
| Dominic Canzone | 4.3 | .645 | .193 | .005 | .192 | .339 | .963 | .264 | .328 | .463 | .790 |
| Cole Young | 4.2 | .684 | .170 | .021 | .083 | .413 | .749 | .257 | .341 | .381 | .722 |
| Colt Emerson | 4.1 | .585 | .159 | .019 | .109 | .362 | 1.040 | .237 | .316 | .380 | .696 |
| Mitch Garver | 4.0 | .469 | .110 | .018 | .147 | .497 | 1.117 | .216 | .322 | .386 | .708 |
| Victor Robles | 3.9 | .636 | .172 | .013 | .052 | .281 | .872 | .248 | .316 | .349 | .665 |
| Miles Mastrobuoni | 3.7 | .609 | .151 | .009 | .045 | .386 | .803 | .244 | .326 | .335 | .661 |
Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections