Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners

Connelly Early vs Emerson Hancock · 2026-06-20 · 69°F

0.6% edge · Boston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox win

47.5%

Seattle Mariners win

52.4%

Fair line (home)

-110

Proj. total

7.97

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Boston Red Sox (mean 3.93)Seattle Mariners (mean 4.04)

O/U line

Proj. total

7.97

Over

48.9%

Under

39.4%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Boston Red Sox	47.5%	+109	+110
Seattle Mariners	52.4%	-118	-110

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Anthony Seigler	4.8	.637	.186	.024	.069	.536	.994	.220	.317	.326	.642
Masataka Yoshida	4.6	.826	.195	.019	.105	.312	.602	.270	.333	.400	.732
Wilyer Abreu	4.5	.633	.191	.015	.157	.442	.999	.245	.323	.416	.739
Willson Contreras	4.4	.588	.168	.021	.171	.408	1.109	.245	.338	.431	.769
Jarren Duran	4.3	.592	.200	.058	.105	.325	1.057	.242	.309	.402	.712
Caleb Durbin	4.2	.654	.206	.016	.074	.271	.509	.248	.317	.368	.684
Marcelo Mayer	4.1	.627	.190	.015	.088	.270	.850	.242	.297	.369	.666
Carlos Narváez	4.0	.531	.161	.004	.092	.363	1.045	.220	.300	.344	.645
Nate Eaton	3.9	.579	.156	.020	.068	.227	.961	.228	.281	.338	.620

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
J.P. Crawford	4.6	.709	.169	.006	.088	.625	.926	.247	.358	.360	.717
Cal Raleigh	4.5	.485	.137	.003	.215	.518	1.308	.213	.314	.414	.728
Julio Rodríguez	4.4	.708	.188	.014	.176	.350	.982	.272	.340	.458	.798
Josh Naylor	4.3	.717	.182	.003	.135	.408	.658	.270	.346	.424	.771
Rob Refsnyder	4.2	.576	.147	.007	.107	.455	1.183	.228	.322	.359	.681
Cole Young	4.1	.652	.160	.024	.064	.414	.767	.249	.337	.360	.697
Mitch Garver	4.0	.451	.109	.014	.121	.498	1.153	.203	.312	.349	.661
Connor Joe	3.9	.480	.162	.010	.068	.456	.994	.215	.318	.331	.649
Colt Emerson	3.7	.519	.147	.017	.076	.346	.999	.228	.313	.351	.664

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections