1.5% edge · Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles win
46.9%
Seattle Mariners win
53.1%
Fair line (home)
-113
Proj. total
7.8
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Baltimore Orioles (mean 3.87)Seattle Mariners (mean 3.93)
Totals
O/U line
7.5
Proj. total
7.8
Over
47.2%
Under
52.8%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 46.9% | +116 | +113 |
| Seattle Mariners | 53.1% | -126 | -113 |
Baltimore Orioles — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Ward | 4.7 | .651 | .186 | .009 | .150 | .425 | 1.142 | .237 | .313 | .392 | .705 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 4.6 | .656 | .191 | .026 | .166 | .343 | 1.056 | .248 | .311 | .424 | .735 |
| Adley Rutschman | 4.5 | .696 | .174 | .017 | .135 | .374 | .738 | .251 | .318 | .402 | .720 |
| Pete Alonso | 4.4 | .577 | .166 | .005 | .202 | .328 | 1.062 | .239 | .309 | .437 | .746 |
| Samuel Basallo | 4.3 | .582 | .162 | .011 | .174 | .273 | 1.106 | .235 | .289 | .413 | .702 |
| Leody Taveras | 4.2 | .654 | .142 | .031 | .081 | .242 | .944 | .233 | .281 | .348 | .630 |
| Tyler O'Neill | 4.0 | .514 | .124 | .009 | .141 | .335 | 1.190 | .215 | .289 | .370 | .658 |
| Jackson Holliday | 3.9 | .576 | .133 | .023 | .093 | .321 | .952 | .231 | .300 | .359 | .659 |
| Blaze Alexander | 3.8 | .570 | .138 | .014 | .074 | .228 | 1.142 | .227 | .287 | .338 | .626 |
Seattle Mariners — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Crawford | 4.6 | .692 | .168 | .004 | .096 | .600 | .966 | .243 | .349 | .361 | .709 |
| Cal Raleigh | 4.5 | .491 | .139 | .003 | .223 | .546 | 1.289 | .220 | .323 | .430 | .753 |
| Julio Rodríguez | 4.4 | .715 | .178 | .012 | .182 | .336 | .992 | .273 | .336 | .461 | .797 |
| Dominic Canzone | 4.3 | .644 | .185 | .004 | .163 | .337 | 1.026 | .256 | .320 | .431 | .750 |
| Cole Young | 4.2 | .674 | .175 | .020 | .065 | .399 | .809 | .252 | .334 | .362 | .696 |
| Victor Robles | 4.1 | .661 | .186 | .013 | .051 | .298 | .971 | .247 | .316 | .346 | .662 |
| Colt Emerson | 4.0 | .544 | .159 | .017 | .084 | .351 | 1.068 | .227 | .307 | .353 | .660 |
| Connor Joe | 3.8 | .488 | .162 | .011 | .071 | .416 | 1.015 | .217 | .310 | .335 | .645 |
| Miles Mastrobuoni | 3.7 | .596 | .154 | .009 | .038 | .393 | .821 | .242 | .325 | .329 | .654 |
Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections