0.9% edge · Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles win
42.6%
Seattle Mariners win
57.4%
Fair line (home)
-135
Proj. total
8.04
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Baltimore Orioles (mean 3.79)Seattle Mariners (mean 4.25)
Totals
O/U line
7.5
Proj. total
8.04
Over
50.0%
Under
50.0%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 42.6% | +135 | +135 |
| Seattle Mariners | 57.4% | -147 | -135 |
Baltimore Orioles — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Ward | 4.7 | .610 | .168 | .008 | .150 | .472 | 1.230 | .225 | .310 | .378 | .688 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 4.6 | .616 | .184 | .025 | .170 | .373 | 1.157 | .239 | .308 | .418 | .726 |
| Adley Rutschman | 4.5 | .646 | .166 | .017 | .125 | .426 | .819 | .238 | .314 | .381 | .695 |
| Pete Alonso | 4.4 | .543 | .158 | .005 | .209 | .361 | 1.155 | .233 | .308 | .435 | .744 |
| Samuel Basallo | 4.3 | .561 | .151 | .010 | .175 | .299 | 1.174 | .229 | .288 | .406 | .694 |
| Leody Taveras | 4.1 | .623 | .136 | .027 | .078 | .271 | 1.019 | .225 | .279 | .335 | .614 |
| Colton Cowser | 4.0 | .492 | .133 | .007 | .131 | .344 | 1.348 | .210 | .287 | .358 | .645 |
| Blaze Alexander | 3.9 | .550 | .133 | .018 | .081 | .272 | 1.240 | .220 | .289 | .336 | .625 |
| Jackson Holliday | 3.8 | .522 | .117 | .025 | .092 | .346 | .971 | .221 | .299 | .351 | .649 |
Seattle Mariners — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Crawford | 4.6 | .736 | .175 | .005 | .115 | .541 | .801 | .258 | .352 | .391 | .743 |
| Cal Raleigh | 4.5 | .509 | .140 | .004 | .263 | .496 | 1.170 | .233 | .324 | .471 | .794 |
| Julio Rodríguez | 4.3 | .748 | .186 | .013 | .219 | .297 | .846 | .290 | .344 | .506 | .851 |
| Dominic Canzone | 4.3 | .668 | .180 | .004 | .195 | .307 | .885 | .267 | .324 | .464 | .788 |
| Rob Refsnyder | 4.2 | .591 | .153 | .009 | .141 | .388 | 1.082 | .240 | .319 | .400 | .719 |
| Cole Young | 4.0 | .665 | .171 | .023 | .075 | .349 | .674 | .256 | .328 | .376 | .704 |
| Victor Robles | 3.9 | .640 | .189 | .013 | .054 | .263 | .822 | .248 | .310 | .352 | .662 |
| Colt Emerson | 3.8 | .555 | .156 | .019 | .104 | .299 | .923 | .240 | .307 | .385 | .692 |
| Miles Mastrobuoni | 3.7 | .618 | .161 | .011 | .042 | .348 | .712 | .250 | .323 | .342 | .666 |
Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections