Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants

Ben Brown vs Trevor McDonald · 2026-06-13 · 62°F · Final 6–1

3.1% edge · Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs win

53.4%

San Francisco Giants win

46.6%

Fair line (home)

+114

Proj. total

7.95

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago Cubs (mean 4.26)San Francisco Giants (mean 3.69)

O/U line

Proj. total

7.95

Over

41.1%

Under

51.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago Cubs	53.4%	-111	-114
San Francisco Giants	46.6%	+103	+114

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.9	.773	.207	.045	.110	.344	1.035	.254	.320	.395	.715
Alex Bregman	4.8	.779	.181	.015	.085	.533	.619	.254	.349	.366	.715
Michael Busch	4.7	.662	.194	.035	.113	.564	1.010	.249	.351	.399	.750
Seiya Suzuki	4.6	.690	.185	.018	.107	.548	1.020	.252	.349	.389	.737
Ian Happ	4.5	.622	.182	.018	.100	.579	1.018	.241	.347	.376	.723
Nico Hoerner	4.3	.879	.205	.015	.030	.324	.312	.286	.351	.369	.720
Pedro Ramírez	4.3	.832	.168	.024	.042	.305	.671	.275	.337	.363	.700
Miguel Amaya	4.1	.655	.161	.007	.059	.346	.737	.238	.318	.334	.652
Dansby Swanson	4.0	.629	.150	.017	.069	.387	.887	.240	.318	.349	.667

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luis Arraez	4.6	1.043	.187	.041	.028	.271	.237	.306	.353	.389	.742
Bryce Eldridge	4.4	.588	.188	.004	.116	.462	1.363	.227	.313	.364	.677
Casey Schmitt	4.3	.659	.169	.015	.120	.291	.976	.241	.301	.380	.681
Rafael Devers	4.2	.514	.175	.011	.132	.517	1.172	.226	.327	.387	.715
Jung Hoo Lee	4.1	.779	.190	.040	.044	.327	.466	.279	.342	.385	.727
Willy Adames	4.0	.502	.150	.016	.113	.445	1.060	.218	.308	.364	.672
Matt Chapman	3.9	.501	.160	.015	.104	.474	.973	.229	.329	.376	.705
Drew Gilbert	3.8	.521	.139	.028	.073	.339	.795	.222	.301	.344	.645
Eric Haase	3.7	.489	.116	.008	.085	.259	1.196	.206	.268	.319	.587

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections