7.5% edge · San Diego Padres
Los Angeles Dodgers win
57.3%
San Diego Padres win
42.7%
Fair line (home)
+134
Proj. total
8.31
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 4.61)San Diego Padres (mean 3.70)
Totals
O/U line
8
Proj. total
8.31
Over
43.5%
Under
48.3%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 57.3% | -196 | -134 |
| San Diego Padres | 42.7% | +178 | +134 |
Los Angeles Dodgers — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | 4.9 | .582 | .163 | .038 | .248 | .760 | 1.253 | .253 | .375 | .494 | .870 |
| Andy Pages | 4.8 | .677 | .205 | .013 | .181 | .330 | 1.052 | .246 | .307 | .422 | .729 |
| Freddie Freeman | 4.7 | .715 | .200 | .014 | .138 | .559 | .928 | .264 | .362 | .423 | .785 |
| Mookie Betts | 4.5 | .668 | .178 | .021 | .147 | .542 | .598 | .256 | .349 | .422 | .771 |
| Max Muncy | 4.4 | .463 | .126 | .008 | .184 | .692 | 1.160 | .211 | .343 | .399 | .742 |
| Tommy Edman | 4.3 | .644 | .151 | .015 | .093 | .293 | .875 | .227 | .290 | .342 | .632 |
| Kyle Tucker | 4.2 | .552 | .145 | .018 | .149 | .620 | .775 | .242 | .358 | .417 | .775 |
| Dalton Rushing | 4.1 | .494 | .134 | .008 | .130 | .430 | 1.181 | .212 | .307 | .361 | .668 |
| Alex Freeland | 4.0 | .494 | .121 | .009 | .082 | .442 | 1.132 | .201 | .299 | .310 | .609 |
San Diego Padres — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 4.5 | .705 | .178 | .015 | .161 | .468 | 1.003 | .262 | .345 | .433 | .778 |
| Samad Taylor | 4.4 | .675 | .130 | .028 | .080 | .389 | 1.215 | .228 | .301 | .333 | .634 |
| Jackson Merrill | 4.3 | .621 | .183 | .031 | .128 | .309 | 1.023 | .241 | .300 | .399 | .699 |
| Manny Machado | 4.2 | .613 | .145 | .003 | .163 | .344 | .970 | .239 | .305 | .405 | .710 |
| Gavin Sheets | 4.1 | .556 | .161 | .006 | .121 | .355 | .992 | .226 | .299 | .370 | .669 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 4.0 | .681 | .142 | .005 | .094 | .349 | .803 | .253 | .323 | .373 | .696 |
| Miguel Andujar | 3.9 | .689 | .144 | .021 | .094 | .225 | .704 | .259 | .307 | .387 | .694 |
| Will Wagner | 3.8 | .600 | .143 | .011 | .053 | .396 | .755 | .241 | .328 | .339 | .667 |
| Freddy Fermin | 3.7 | .556 | .126 | .004 | .077 | .266 | .826 | .227 | .289 | .335 | .624 |
Data notes: home starter Kyle Hart: only 44 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Kyle Hart: only 50 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections