4.2% edge · San Diego Padres
Atlanta Braves win
47.0%
San Diego Padres win
53.0%
Fair line (home)
-113
Proj. total
8.29
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Atlanta Braves (mean 4.11)San Diego Padres (mean 4.17)
Totals
O/U line
8.5
Proj. total
8.29
Over
44.0%
Under
56.0%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 47.0% | -109 | +113 |
| San Diego Padres | 53.0% | +101 | -113 |
Atlanta Braves — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Harris II | 4.8 | .820 | .194 | .026 | .164 | .247 | .972 | .268 | .311 | .432 | .742 |
| Ozzie Albies | 4.7 | .721 | .184 | .010 | .106 | .365 | .758 | .241 | .309 | .365 | .674 |
| Matt Olson | 4.5 | .563 | .181 | .009 | .182 | .590 | 1.177 | .238 | .343 | .428 | .771 |
| Dominic Smith | 4.4 | .705 | .152 | .016 | .094 | .400 | .926 | .242 | .318 | .359 | .677 |
| Mauricio Dubón | 4.3 | .751 | .171 | .018 | .063 | .289 | .670 | .250 | .305 | .349 | .654 |
| Drake Baldwin | 4.2 | .661 | .136 | .012 | .147 | .468 | .828 | .257 | .346 | .418 | .764 |
| Austin Riley | 4.1 | .574 | .154 | .014 | .128 | .367 | 1.173 | .235 | .312 | .387 | .699 |
| Rowdy Tellez | 4.0 | .512 | .121 | .005 | .124 | .394 | 1.099 | .213 | .295 | .353 | .649 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 3.9 | .469 | .140 | .020 | .102 | .474 | .967 | .217 | .320 | .361 | .681 |
San Diego Padres — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 4.6 | .744 | .187 | .015 | .164 | .547 | .836 | .277 | .371 | .454 | .825 |
| Samad Taylor | 4.5 | .742 | .144 | .032 | .075 | .439 | 1.035 | .248 | .328 | .356 | .684 |
| Jackson Merrill | 4.4 | .691 | .197 | .032 | .140 | .350 | .863 | .265 | .329 | .435 | .763 |
| Manny Machado | 4.3 | .671 | .163 | .004 | .167 | .408 | .832 | .261 | .336 | .436 | .772 |
| Gavin Sheets | 4.2 | .594 | .182 | .005 | .128 | .408 | .851 | .244 | .326 | .398 | .724 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 4.1 | .738 | .157 | .006 | .095 | .378 | .680 | .272 | .346 | .396 | .742 |
| Will Wagner | 4.0 | .661 | .159 | .014 | .057 | .452 | .670 | .256 | .348 | .360 | .708 |
| Rodolfo Durán | 3.9 | .536 | .143 | .017 | .101 | .281 | .890 | .226 | .292 | .362 | .654 |
| Sung-Mun Song | 3.7 | .633 | .126 | .011 | .070 | .286 | .651 | .245 | .307 | .350 | .657 |
Data notes: home starter Wandy Peralta: only 74 BF vs RHB this season · away starter JR Ritchie: only 52 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections