Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres

Grant Holmes vs Michael King · 2026-06-22 · 69°F

1.0% edge · San Diego Padres

Atlanta Braves win

48.3%

San Diego Padres win

51.7%

Fair line (home)

-107

Proj. total

8.16

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Atlanta Braves (mean 4.14)San Diego Padres (mean 4.02)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.16

Over

50.6%

Under

49.4%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Atlanta Braves	48.3%	-101	+107
San Diego Padres	51.7%	-107	-107

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Mauricio Dubón	4.8	.847	.188	.017	.080	.291	.749	.255	.305	.358	.663
Drake Baldwin	4.7	.719	.151	.011	.187	.487	.954	.259	.344	.437	.781
Matt Olson	4.5	.571	.180	.008	.202	.579	1.172	.245	.348	.450	.798
Ozzie Albies	4.4	.704	.169	.012	.120	.357	.717	.249	.317	.387	.704
Michael Harris II	4.3	.738	.170	.025	.155	.203	.920	.265	.305	.432	.737
Austin Riley	4.2	.595	.148	.014	.143	.352	1.248	.235	.308	.394	.701
Dominic Smith	4.1	.646	.137	.013	.097	.341	.909	.239	.310	.361	.671
Mike Yastrzemski	4.0	.483	.146	.018	.109	.468	1.038	.216	.315	.362	.677
Jorge Mateo	3.9	.538	.162	.011	.087	.245	1.107	.221	.275	.344	.619

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.6	.736	.178	.018	.172	.510	.942	.274	.362	.455	.817
Jackson Merrill	4.5	.678	.194	.032	.144	.341	.983	.255	.317	.423	.740
Manny Machado	4.4	.664	.157	.003	.175	.394	.914	.253	.323	.427	.750
Gavin Sheets	4.3	.602	.168	.007	.138	.396	.946	.239	.316	.394	.710
Ty France	4.2	.679	.157	.018	.103	.283	.841	.254	.323	.387	.711
Xander Bogaerts	4.0	.691	.153	.005	.098	.364	.739	.260	.331	.385	.716
Will Wagner	3.9	.651	.147	.015	.056	.432	.721	.250	.339	.350	.689
Rodolfo Durán	3.8	.518	.137	.015	.104	.266	.973	.220	.282	.356	.639
Samad Taylor	3.7	.584	.118	.023	.062	.340	.951	.236	.312	.341	.652

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections