1.3% edge · Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds win
38.5%
Pittsburgh Pirates win
61.5%
Fair line (home)
-160
Proj. total
8.44
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Cincinnati Reds (mean 3.80)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.64)
Totals
O/U line
7.5
Proj. total
8.44
Over
53.0%
Under
47.0%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds | 38.5% | +163 | +160 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 61.5% | -179 | -160 |
Cincinnati Reds — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Dunn | 4.7 | .746 | .143 | .016 | .068 | .347 | 1.507 | .227 | .300 | .316 | .616 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 4.6 | .655 | .186 | .041 | .144 | .407 | 1.438 | .246 | .319 | .414 | .733 |
| JJ Bleday | 4.5 | .529 | .190 | .015 | .147 | .499 | 1.197 | .221 | .311 | .387 | .698 |
| Sal Stewart | 4.4 | .658 | .182 | .003 | .127 | .413 | 1.054 | .246 | .323 | .390 | .713 |
| Nathaniel Lowe | 4.3 | .612 | .142 | .011 | .119 | .464 | 1.228 | .232 | .321 | .369 | .690 |
| Eugenio Suárez | 4.2 | .486 | .129 | .004 | .169 | .336 | 1.426 | .208 | .284 | .379 | .663 |
| Spencer Steer | 4.1 | .545 | .161 | .011 | .115 | .386 | 1.012 | .228 | .310 | .373 | .684 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 4.0 | .522 | .138 | .006 | .087 | .384 | 1.231 | .213 | .298 | .329 | .627 |
| Matt McLain | 3.8 | .505 | .136 | .004 | .091 | .360 | 1.180 | .214 | .297 | .336 | .633 |
Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Konnor Griffin | 4.6 | .823 | .192 | .029 | .120 | .357 | 1.070 | .275 | .339 | .419 | .758 |
| Brandon Lowe | 4.5 | .605 | .178 | .013 | .255 | .432 | 1.056 | .259 | .336 | .498 | .833 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 4.4 | .698 | .179 | .016 | .154 | .426 | .988 | .266 | .346 | .438 | .784 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 4.3 | .617 | .148 | .004 | .206 | .548 | 1.004 | .261 | .359 | .468 | .826 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 4.2 | .731 | .164 | .011 | .162 | .425 | .746 | .285 | .363 | .465 | .827 |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | 4.1 | .545 | .159 | .008 | .174 | .419 | 1.062 | .244 | .328 | .435 | .763 |
| Jared Triolo | 4.0 | .642 | .157 | .013 | .075 | .472 | .869 | .255 | .348 | .372 | .721 |
| Jake Mangum | 3.9 | .809 | .176 | .011 | .042 | .205 | .649 | .286 | .330 | .375 | .706 |
| Henry Davis | 3.8 | .501 | .141 | .006 | .136 | .356 | .887 | .234 | .317 | .401 | .718 |
Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections