0.1% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates
Cincinnati Reds win
50.3%
Pittsburgh Pirates win
49.7%
Fair line (home)
+101
Proj. total
8.07
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.20)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 3.87)
Totals
O/U line
8
Proj. total
8.07
Over
41.4%
Under
51.1%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds | 50.3% | -106 | -101 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 49.7% | -102 | +101 |
Cincinnati Reds — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz | 4.8 | .695 | .195 | .047 | .151 | .491 | 1.325 | .256 | .338 | .430 | .769 |
| Sal Stewart | 4.7 | .702 | .197 | .003 | .144 | .505 | .989 | .253 | .340 | .406 | .746 |
| JJ Bleday | 4.6 | .530 | .184 | .018 | .174 | .586 | 1.057 | .229 | .332 | .416 | .747 |
| Eugenio Suárez | 4.5 | .532 | .149 | .004 | .196 | .423 | 1.384 | .222 | .308 | .409 | .718 |
| Nathaniel Lowe | 4.4 | .636 | .146 | .010 | .139 | .540 | 1.096 | .246 | .345 | .400 | .745 |
| Noelvi Marte | 4.3 | .703 | .172 | .018 | .111 | .288 | .952 | .256 | .313 | .394 | .707 |
| Dane Myers | 4.2 | .672 | .129 | .006 | .091 | .346 | 1.099 | .239 | .312 | .350 | .662 |
| Jose Trevino | 4.0 | .642 | .152 | .005 | .083 | .267 | .670 | .237 | .294 | .347 | .641 |
| Edwin Arroyo | 3.9 | .649 | .132 | .030 | .059 | .232 | .873 | .240 | .294 | .341 | .636 |
Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Mangum | 4.6 | .898 | .196 | .016 | .041 | .245 | .955 | .269 | .315 | .351 | .666 |
| Brandon Lowe | 4.5 | .573 | .170 | .011 | .206 | .414 | 1.276 | .239 | .314 | .441 | .755 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 4.3 | .628 | .161 | .021 | .135 | .443 | 1.206 | .245 | .330 | .402 | .732 |
| Nick Gonzales | 4.3 | .725 | .209 | .024 | .079 | .291 | .948 | .264 | .321 | .390 | .711 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 4.2 | .668 | .155 | .012 | .136 | .405 | .927 | .261 | .340 | .420 | .759 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 4.0 | .533 | .124 | .003 | .162 | .509 | 1.153 | .234 | .334 | .408 | .742 |
| Endy Rodríguez | 3.9 | .547 | .157 | .011 | .077 | .404 | 1.032 | .226 | .310 | .342 | .653 |
| Tyler Callihan | 3.8 | .524 | .135 | .016 | .082 | .319 | 1.172 | .217 | .287 | .336 | .623 |
| Jared Triolo | 3.7 | .563 | .134 | .012 | .058 | .409 | .968 | .235 | .326 | .337 | .663 |
Data notes: home starter Jared Jones: only 54 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Jared Jones: only 36 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections