Seattle Mariners @ Pittsburgh Pirates

George Kirby vs Mitch Keller · 2026-06-23 · 72°F

0.4% edge · Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners win

54.6%

Pittsburgh Pirates win

45.4%

Fair line (home)

+120

Proj. total

8.21

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Seattle Mariners (mean 4.44)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 3.78)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.21

Over

43.5%

Under

56.5%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Seattle Mariners	54.6%	-123	-120
Pittsburgh Pirates	45.4%	+114	+120

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
J.P. Crawford	4.9	.767	.188	.005	.095	.612	.875	.251	.354	.367	.720
Cal Raleigh	4.8	.533	.154	.003	.233	.544	1.258	.222	.321	.430	.751
Julio Rodríguez	4.6	.783	.201	.014	.177	.337	.921	.277	.340	.457	.797
Josh Naylor	4.5	.776	.197	.004	.142	.384	.624	.273	.343	.427	.770
Randy Arozarena	4.4	.629	.183	.011	.115	.438	1.058	.245	.346	.389	.735
Luke Raley	4.3	.579	.145	.015	.155	.316	1.259	.233	.317	.399	.717
Cole Young	4.2	.693	.167	.020	.062	.401	.708	.252	.337	.358	.694
Victor Robles	4.1	.673	.180	.013	.046	.290	.860	.245	.317	.338	.655
Colt Emerson	4.0	.571	.155	.017	.086	.350	.979	.233	.314	.358	.673

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Spencer Horwitz	4.6	.773	.222	.015	.108	.424	.795	.273	.349	.414	.763
Brandon Lowe	4.5	.596	.183	.011	.178	.304	1.165	.235	.294	.415	.709
Bryan Reynolds	4.3	.702	.177	.023	.112	.328	1.069	.256	.323	.398	.721
Nick Gonzales	4.2	.781	.219	.025	.061	.210	.827	.273	.317	.386	.703
Ryan O'Hearn	4.1	.733	.166	.012	.114	.299	.810	.269	.328	.409	.738
Endy Rodríguez	4.0	.599	.168	.010	.069	.302	.976	.229	.293	.335	.628
Marcell Ozuna	3.9	.568	.146	.003	.132	.375	1.030	.241	.318	.396	.714
Jake Mangum	3.8	.787	.171	.015	.030	.153	.700	.277	.314	.358	.672
Jared Triolo	3.7	.598	.149	.012	.049	.299	.879	.241	.309	.337	.646

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections