1.8% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates
Seattle Mariners win
55.5%
Pittsburgh Pirates win
44.5%
Fair line (home)
+125
Proj. total
8.32
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Seattle Mariners (mean 4.53)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 3.79)
Totals
O/U line
8
Proj. total
8.32
Over
43.8%
Under
48.4%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 55.5% | -141 | -125 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 44.5% | +130 | +125 |
Seattle Mariners — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Crawford | 4.9 | .721 | .177 | .005 | .098 | .750 | .910 | .243 | .366 | .360 | .726 |
| Cal Raleigh | 4.8 | .493 | .145 | .004 | .225 | .662 | 1.306 | .212 | .330 | .415 | .745 |
| Julio Rodríguez | 4.7 | .737 | .188 | .013 | .188 | .419 | .972 | .267 | .343 | .452 | .795 |
| Josh Naylor | 4.6 | .755 | .181 | .004 | .139 | .468 | .674 | .265 | .347 | .415 | .762 |
| Randy Arozarena | 4.5 | .612 | .178 | .011 | .114 | .537 | 1.082 | .241 | .356 | .384 | .739 |
| Luke Raley | 4.4 | .539 | .140 | .014 | .151 | .381 | 1.325 | .220 | .313 | .382 | .695 |
| Cole Young | 4.3 | .667 | .164 | .020 | .063 | .484 | .739 | .247 | .344 | .353 | .697 |
| Mitch Garver | 4.1 | .476 | .112 | .017 | .122 | .574 | 1.148 | .206 | .324 | .351 | .675 |
| Colt Emerson | 4.0 | .550 | .153 | .016 | .084 | .413 | 1.016 | .226 | .319 | .350 | .669 |
Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Mangum | 4.6 | .929 | .203 | .016 | .037 | .219 | .816 | .275 | .317 | .356 | .673 |
| Brandon Lowe | 4.5 | .606 | .179 | .010 | .195 | .387 | 1.134 | .245 | .316 | .439 | .755 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 4.4 | .676 | .167 | .023 | .115 | .417 | 1.034 | .253 | .335 | .397 | .732 |
| Nick Gonzales | 4.3 | .779 | .207 | .025 | .069 | .269 | .817 | .274 | .328 | .392 | .720 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 4.2 | .710 | .164 | .011 | .119 | .376 | .795 | .269 | .342 | .415 | .757 |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | 4.0 | .535 | .154 | .007 | .130 | .373 | 1.162 | .227 | .306 | .381 | .687 |
| Tyler Callihan | 3.9 | .566 | .151 | .020 | .074 | .305 | 1.083 | .225 | .290 | .340 | .630 |
| Jared Triolo | 3.8 | .607 | .142 | .013 | .051 | .384 | .903 | .239 | .322 | .334 | .656 |
| Henry Davis | 3.7 | .483 | .131 | .008 | .103 | .313 | .939 | .218 | .295 | .354 | .649 |
Data notes: away starter Bryce Miller: only 66 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections