0.3% edge · New York Mets
New York Mets win
48.6%
Philadelphia Phillies win
51.3%
Fair line (home)
-106
Proj. total
9.53
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
New York Mets (mean 4.85)Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.68)
Totals
O/U line
10
Proj. total
9.53
Over
38.2%
Under
54.8%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | 48.6% | +103 | +106 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 51.3% | -111 | -106 |
New York Mets — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Benge | 4.8 | .787 | .198 | .026 | .160 | .340 | 1.085 | .262 | .320 | .425 | .745 |
| Bo Bichette | 4.7 | .910 | .222 | .018 | .153 | .272 | .824 | .294 | .337 | .455 | .792 |
| Juan Soto | 4.6 | .645 | .161 | .016 | .296 | .761 | .815 | .291 | .411 | .573 | .983 |
| Jared Young | 4.5 | .659 | .189 | .017 | .190 | .364 | 1.119 | .257 | .326 | .450 | .776 |
| A.J. Ewing | 4.4 | .805 | .177 | .033 | .054 | .371 | 1.112 | .266 | .331 | .366 | .697 |
| Marcus Semien | 4.3 | .658 | .150 | .010 | .150 | .341 | .797 | .246 | .310 | .403 | .713 |
| Brett Baty | 4.2 | .655 | .150 | .015 | .149 | .307 | 1.097 | .251 | .309 | .413 | .722 |
| MJ Melendez | 4.1 | .493 | .162 | .017 | .165 | .317 | 1.230 | .223 | .289 | .408 | .697 |
| Francisco Alvarez | 4.0 | .543 | .143 | .008 | .203 | .336 | 1.000 | .249 | .319 | .462 | .781 |
Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner | 4.7 | .819 | .185 | .024 | .158 | .338 | .936 | .278 | .336 | .443 | .780 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 4.5 | .426 | .115 | .011 | .328 | .727 | 1.344 | .234 | .367 | .533 | .899 |
| Bryce Harper | 4.4 | .614 | .208 | .006 | .235 | .614 | .947 | .281 | .385 | .525 | .910 |
| Alec Bohm | 4.3 | .757 | .179 | .015 | .134 | .330 | .686 | .275 | .338 | .430 | .768 |
| Brandon Marsh | 4.2 | .658 | .176 | .025 | .133 | .428 | 1.172 | .263 | .342 | .429 | .771 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 4.1 | .636 | .167 | .018 | .139 | .190 | .968 | .249 | .297 | .410 | .707 |
| Bryson Stott | 4.0 | .664 | .148 | .024 | .106 | .375 | .685 | .261 | .336 | .404 | .740 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 3.9 | .572 | .154 | .012 | .120 | .285 | .938 | .242 | .310 | .394 | .704 |
| Derek Hill | 3.8 | .557 | .130 | .014 | .103 | .253 | 1.144 | .232 | .293 | .366 | .659 |
Data notes: away starter Sean Manaea: only 71 BF vs LHB this season · game-time temp 86F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections