New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies

David Peterson vs Zack Wheeler · 2026-06-21 · 82°F

8.2% edge · New York Mets

New York Mets win

46.2%

Philadelphia Phillies win

53.8%

Fair line (home)

-116

Proj. total

8.77

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Mets (mean 4.33)Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.44)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.77

Over

47.8%

Under

44.5%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Mets	46.2%	+158	+116
Philadelphia Phillies	53.8%	-172	-116

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carson Benge	4.8	.757	.195	.024	.134	.327	1.189	.253	.312	.399	.712
Bo Bichette	4.7	.871	.201	.015	.137	.266	.907	.280	.325	.427	.752
Juan Soto	4.6	.618	.148	.015	.258	.739	.902	.274	.396	.525	.921
Jared Young	4.5	.630	.170	.015	.168	.332	1.224	.242	.310	.415	.726
A.J. Ewing	4.3	.738	.173	.031	.047	.355	1.205	.249	.315	.344	.660
Marcus Semien	4.2	.630	.149	.010	.138	.319	.873	.238	.301	.388	.688
Brett Baty	4.1	.635	.137	.017	.123	.292	1.176	.239	.298	.381	.679
Francisco Alvarez	4.0	.532	.138	.010	.184	.312	1.106	.236	.305	.431	.735
Luis Torrens	3.9	.569	.165	.007	.095	.214	.985	.230	.282	.356	.638

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trea Turner	4.6	.854	.201	.022	.119	.339	.879	.280	.338	.421	.759
Kyle Schwarber	4.5	.454	.124	.011	.258	.748	1.302	.227	.363	.473	.836
Bryce Harper	4.4	.621	.204	.010	.190	.637	.915	.273	.384	.485	.869
Alec Bohm	4.3	.787	.186	.016	.106	.343	.659	.278	.342	.415	.757
Edmundo Sosa	4.2	.676	.180	.019	.111	.199	.963	.249	.296	.388	.684
Brandon Marsh	4.1	.682	.175	.027	.104	.421	1.100	.270	.349	.418	.767
J.T. Realmuto	4.0	.615	.165	.015	.103	.291	.930	.246	.312	.383	.695
Derek Hill	3.9	.589	.131	.014	.095	.269	1.119	.232	.294	.356	.650
Bryson Stott	3.8	.628	.139	.023	.082	.356	.635	.258	.334	.385	.719

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections