0.2% edge · Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins win
47.1%
Philadelphia Phillies win
52.9%
Fair line (home)
-112
Proj. total
9.9
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Miami Marlins (mean 4.92)Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.98)
Totals
O/U line
9.5
Proj. total
9.9
Over
48.6%
Under
51.4%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | 47.1% | +109 | +112 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 52.9% | -118 | -112 |
Miami Marlins — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Hicks | 4.9 | .859 | .182 | .022 | .148 | .530 | .577 | .281 | .369 | .436 | .805 |
| Otto Lopez | 4.8 | .977 | .230 | .029 | .117 | .312 | .650 | .303 | .353 | .446 | .799 |
| Kyle Stowers | 4.7 | .658 | .201 | .026 | .208 | .435 | 1.217 | .260 | .336 | .468 | .804 |
| Xavier Edwards | 4.6 | 1.010 | .168 | .052 | .054 | .431 | .552 | .311 | .378 | .416 | .794 |
| Javier Sanoja | 4.5 | .811 | .245 | .030 | .086 | .283 | .460 | .281 | .330 | .417 | .747 |
| Owen Caissie | 4.4 | .627 | .199 | .011 | .171 | .389 | 1.344 | .255 | .327 | .441 | .768 |
| Jakob Marsee | 4.3 | .623 | .161 | .042 | .100 | .507 | .876 | .250 | .348 | .398 | .746 |
| Joe Mack | 4.2 | .620 | .159 | .011 | .127 | .319 | 1.061 | .241 | .305 | .388 | .693 |
| Esteury Ruiz | 4.0 | .635 | .169 | .035 | .107 | .346 | .897 | .261 | .336 | .416 | .753 |
Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner | 4.7 | .923 | .216 | .028 | .145 | .291 | .774 | .299 | .348 | .461 | .809 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 4.6 | .512 | .138 | .011 | .327 | .651 | 1.202 | .254 | .369 | .548 | .917 |
| Bryce Harper | 4.5 | .708 | .232 | .011 | .224 | .542 | .806 | .301 | .390 | .538 | .928 |
| Brandon Marsh | 4.4 | .787 | .213 | .028 | .132 | .379 | 1.047 | .292 | .357 | .459 | .816 |
| Alec Bohm | 4.3 | .819 | .198 | .019 | .125 | .276 | .569 | .293 | .345 | .447 | .792 |
| Bryson Stott | 4.2 | .750 | .180 | .030 | .108 | .329 | .592 | .280 | .342 | .429 | .771 |
| Gabriel Rincones Jr. | 4.1 | .576 | .156 | .009 | .123 | .391 | .988 | .238 | .320 | .388 | .707 |
| Justin Crawford | 4.0 | .790 | .169 | .028 | .064 | .254 | .704 | .287 | .337 | .400 | .737 |
| Garrett Stubbs | 3.8 | .610 | .143 | .010 | .080 | .284 | .852 | .242 | .310 | .357 | .667 |
Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections