Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies

Tyler Phillips vs Jesús Luzardo · 2026-06-16 · 76°F

1.0% edge · Miami Marlins

Miami Marlins win

39.6%

Philadelphia Phillies win

60.4%

Fair line (home)

-153

Proj. total

8.92

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Miami Marlins (mean 4.07)Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.84)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.92

Over

49.8%

Under

50.2%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Miami Marlins	39.6%	+154	+153
Philadelphia Phillies	60.4%	-168	-153

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Xavier Edwards	4.8	1.017	.160	.040	.050	.403	.745	.289	.353	.379	.731
Otto Lopez	4.7	.918	.226	.026	.094	.286	.826	.289	.337	.417	.754
Liam Hicks	4.6	.757	.152	.021	.115	.484	.713	.259	.349	.393	.741
Heriberto Hernández	4.5	.604	.153	.025	.151	.417	1.368	.232	.309	.394	.704
Javier Sanoja	4.4	.757	.232	.027	.070	.263	.574	.265	.313	.386	.699
Leo Jiménez	4.3	.681	.175	.011	.074	.339	.988	.246	.323	.356	.679
Esteury Ruiz	4.2	.622	.159	.034	.090	.322	1.120	.240	.311	.372	.683
Jakob Marsee	4.0	.546	.136	.035	.082	.457	1.018	.226	.322	.353	.676
Connor Norby	3.9	.550	.169	.008	.098	.302	1.194	.230	.297	.363	.661

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brandon Marsh	4.7	.813	.215	.030	.129	.490	1.114	.285	.363	.443	.806
Kyle Schwarber	4.6	.482	.129	.010	.289	.774	1.173	.243	.381	.515	.896
Bryce Harper	4.5	.675	.217	.011	.204	.636	.816	.291	.397	.515	.912
Alec Bohm	4.4	.807	.192	.018	.116	.335	.586	.285	.346	.429	.775
Bryson Stott	4.3	.741	.170	.026	.102	.396	.622	.271	.344	.409	.753
J.T. Realmuto	4.2	.676	.171	.015	.116	.315	.855	.259	.327	.404	.731
Gabriel Rincones Jr.	4.0	.550	.146	.011	.107	.459	1.004	.230	.326	.369	.695
Justin Crawford	3.9	.753	.166	.027	.058	.318	.704	.281	.343	.391	.734
Edmundo Sosa	3.8	.631	.173	.017	.104	.178	.767	.259	.305	.404	.709

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections