4.2% edge · Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins win
41.0%
Philadelphia Phillies win
59.0%
Fair line (home)
-144
Proj. total
8.51
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Miami Marlins (mean 3.93)Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.58)
Totals
O/U line
8
Proj. total
8.51
Over
45.6%
Under
46.9%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | 41.0% | +166 | +144 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 59.0% | -182 | -144 |
Miami Marlins — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Hicks | 4.8 | .781 | .164 | .021 | .116 | .446 | .760 | .257 | .341 | .388 | .729 |
| Otto Lopez | 4.6 | .906 | .207 | .026 | .087 | .249 | .834 | .282 | .326 | .401 | .727 |
| Kyle Stowers | 4.5 | .592 | .187 | .025 | .156 | .346 | 1.461 | .232 | .300 | .403 | .703 |
| Xavier Edwards | 4.4 | .918 | .152 | .048 | .044 | .366 | .706 | .288 | .352 | .383 | .734 |
| Heriberto Hernández | 4.3 | .569 | .149 | .024 | .142 | .360 | 1.346 | .225 | .297 | .384 | .681 |
| Owen Caissie | 4.2 | .548 | .175 | .011 | .133 | .319 | 1.556 | .224 | .290 | .378 | .668 |
| Jakob Marsee | 4.1 | .557 | .135 | .042 | .074 | .418 | 1.061 | .223 | .314 | .345 | .659 |
| Joe Mack | 4.0 | .551 | .142 | .010 | .108 | .267 | 1.217 | .220 | .279 | .352 | .630 |
| Javier Sanoja | 3.9 | .677 | .200 | .025 | .063 | .212 | .514 | .266 | .311 | .386 | .697 |
Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | 4.6 | .474 | .127 | .012 | .299 | .753 | 1.279 | .238 | .370 | .512 | .882 |
| Trea Turner | 4.5 | .811 | .192 | .024 | .133 | .318 | .799 | .278 | .334 | .431 | .765 |
| Bryce Harper | 4.4 | .647 | .217 | .007 | .203 | .624 | .844 | .285 | .391 | .509 | .899 |
| Brandon Marsh | 4.3 | .732 | .183 | .028 | .118 | .428 | 1.091 | .274 | .350 | .428 | .778 |
| Bryson Stott | 4.2 | .724 | .161 | .025 | .103 | .402 | .641 | .267 | .342 | .405 | .746 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 4.1 | .649 | .163 | .013 | .114 | .303 | .896 | .250 | .317 | .392 | .708 |
| Gabriel Rincones Jr. | 4.0 | .528 | .150 | .008 | .114 | .440 | 1.039 | .227 | .319 | .371 | .690 |
| Justin Crawford | 3.9 | .728 | .158 | .029 | .055 | .307 | .744 | .273 | .335 | .379 | .714 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 3.8 | .599 | .161 | .018 | .105 | .173 | .825 | .250 | .296 | .395 | .690 |
Data notes: away starter Ryan Gusto: only 23 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Ryan Gusto: only 17 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections