4.0% edge · New York Yankees
Chicago White Sox win
36.0%
New York Yankees win
64.0%
Fair line (home)
-178
Proj. total
9.08
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Chicago White Sox (mean 3.93)New York Yankees (mean 5.15)
Totals
O/U line
9.5
Proj. total
9.08
Over
41.0%
Under
59.0%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox | 36.0% | +145 | +178 |
| New York Yankees | 64.0% | -158 | -178 |
Chicago White Sox — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Meidroth | 4.7 | .783 | .164 | .005 | .103 | .511 | .908 | .255 | .343 | .371 | .714 |
| Randal Grichuk | 4.6 | .645 | .188 | .010 | .215 | .281 | 1.059 | .248 | .300 | .448 | .749 |
| Miguel Vargas | 4.5 | .564 | .169 | .014 | .202 | .523 | .924 | .243 | .339 | .448 | .787 |
| Colson Montgomery | 4.4 | .480 | .133 | .009 | .247 | .374 | 1.391 | .221 | .300 | .448 | .748 |
| Edgar Quero | 4.3 | .693 | .132 | .004 | .100 | .314 | .970 | .238 | .303 | .350 | .653 |
| Braden Montgomery | 4.2 | .583 | .148 | .012 | .115 | .307 | 1.302 | .225 | .291 | .360 | .651 |
| Luisangel Acuña | 4.1 | .727 | .145 | .013 | .065 | .235 | .782 | .250 | .298 | .346 | .644 |
| Junior Perez | 3.9 | .430 | .135 | .021 | .117 | .332 | 1.396 | .196 | .268 | .344 | .612 |
| Tristan Peters | 3.8 | .552 | .152 | .015 | .084 | .305 | .904 | .231 | .298 | .355 | .654 |
New York Yankees — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Rice | 4.7 | .557 | .179 | .024 | .316 | .599 | .981 | .269 | .373 | .564 | .936 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 4.5 | .698 | .191 | .014 | .201 | .466 | .941 | .274 | .353 | .477 | .831 |
| Cody Bellinger | 4.4 | .685 | .173 | .032 | .235 | .485 | .617 | .287 | .369 | .527 | .896 |
| Jasson Domínguez | 4.3 | .681 | .152 | .011 | .185 | .461 | .975 | .269 | .353 | .459 | .813 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 4.2 | .554 | .122 | .020 | .252 | .480 | 1.047 | .255 | .345 | .503 | .848 |
| Spencer Jones | 4.1 | .501 | .147 | .009 | .219 | .392 | 1.458 | .237 | .316 | .460 | .776 |
| José Caballero | 4.0 | .575 | .159 | .007 | .105 | .445 | .903 | .242 | .340 | .382 | .722 |
| Ryan McMahon | 3.9 | .470 | .125 | .005 | .169 | .497 | 1.187 | .228 | .331 | .418 | .748 |
| J.C. Escarra | 3.8 | .536 | .146 | .023 | .101 | .380 | .723 | .240 | .324 | .388 | .712 |
Data notes: home starter Ryan Weathers: only 63 BF vs LHB this season · game-time temp 88F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections