9.3% edge · Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds win
38.3%
New York Yankees win
61.7%
Fair line (home)
-161
Proj. total
9.7
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.35)New York Yankees (mean 5.35)
Totals
O/U line
9
Proj. total
9.7
Over
46.9%
Under
42.9%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds | 38.3% | +237 | +161 |
| New York Yankees | 61.7% | -265 | -161 |
Cincinnati Reds — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Dunn | 4.8 | .727 | .150 | .017 | .097 | .369 | 1.390 | .230 | .305 | .341 | .646 |
| JJ Bleday | 4.7 | .532 | .189 | .018 | .223 | .548 | 1.098 | .235 | .329 | .454 | .783 |
| Sal Stewart | 4.5 | .659 | .187 | .004 | .191 | .435 | .966 | .256 | .333 | .444 | .777 |
| Nathaniel Lowe | 4.4 | .629 | .142 | .011 | .179 | .507 | 1.125 | .246 | .337 | .426 | .763 |
| Spencer Steer | 4.3 | .564 | .167 | .012 | .166 | .423 | .981 | .235 | .318 | .413 | .731 |
| Eugenio Suárez | 4.2 | .469 | .139 | .003 | .242 | .355 | 1.317 | .224 | .301 | .453 | .754 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 4.1 | .542 | .137 | .004 | .137 | .416 | 1.186 | .224 | .310 | .377 | .687 |
| Matt McLain | 4.0 | .526 | .147 | .004 | .132 | .405 | 1.091 | .228 | .314 | .382 | .696 |
| Edwin Arroyo | 3.9 | .629 | .132 | .033 | .081 | .220 | .869 | .242 | .293 | .363 | .656 |
New York Yankees — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Rice | 4.7 | .614 | .193 | .023 | .306 | .584 | .895 | .280 | .378 | .565 | .943 |
| Jasson Domínguez | 4.6 | .782 | .179 | .012 | .180 | .476 | .950 | .283 | .365 | .466 | .831 |
| Cody Bellinger | 4.5 | .731 | .179 | .033 | .228 | .489 | .563 | .295 | .376 | .530 | .906 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 4.4 | .740 | .189 | .013 | .174 | .437 | .827 | .287 | .364 | .476 | .840 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 4.3 | .612 | .142 | .019 | .236 | .470 | .993 | .269 | .355 | .505 | .860 |
| Spencer Jones | 4.2 | .549 | .161 | .008 | .207 | .372 | 1.420 | .246 | .320 | .459 | .778 |
| Anthony Volpe | 4.0 | .569 | .181 | .022 | .144 | .380 | .837 | .252 | .328 | .433 | .760 |
| Ryan McMahon | 3.9 | .502 | .134 | .006 | .163 | .502 | 1.126 | .236 | .339 | .423 | .762 |
| J.C. Escarra | 3.8 | .580 | .151 | .023 | .102 | .382 | .684 | .252 | .335 | .400 | .735 |
Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections