0.1% edge · New York Yankees
Chicago White Sox win
42.9%
New York Yankees win
57.1%
Fair line (home)
-133
Proj. total
8.38
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Chicago White Sox (mean 3.95)New York Yankees (mean 4.43)
Totals
O/U line
8
Proj. total
8.38
Over
45.4%
Under
47.5%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox | 42.9% | +128 | +133 |
| New York Yankees | 57.1% | -139 | -133 |
Chicago White Sox — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Antonacci | 4.7 | .788 | .166 | .030 | .071 | .421 | .831 | .255 | .345 | .361 | .706 |
| Miguel Vargas | 4.6 | .567 | .180 | .015 | .197 | .501 | .909 | .237 | .328 | .435 | .763 |
| Andrew Benintendi | 4.5 | .682 | .142 | .021 | .158 | .350 | .932 | .243 | .306 | .403 | .709 |
| Colson Montgomery | 4.4 | .485 | .125 | .011 | .236 | .360 | 1.340 | .216 | .292 | .432 | .725 |
| Braden Montgomery | 4.3 | .605 | .160 | .015 | .125 | .321 | 1.284 | .231 | .298 | .376 | .674 |
| Chase Meidroth | 4.2 | .700 | .143 | .005 | .081 | .411 | .747 | .250 | .332 | .356 | .688 |
| Jacob Gonzalez | 4.1 | .557 | .137 | .010 | .126 | .292 | .871 | .222 | .286 | .365 | .651 |
| Tristan Peters | 4.0 | .565 | .161 | .016 | .088 | .299 | .900 | .229 | .294 | .356 | .650 |
| Drew Romo | 3.8 | .501 | .128 | .008 | .130 | .213 | 1.001 | .215 | .267 | .364 | .632 |
New York Yankees — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Rice | 4.6 | .587 | .172 | .026 | .266 | .511 | .925 | .263 | .355 | .518 | .872 |
| Cody Bellinger | 4.5 | .717 | .168 | .032 | .191 | .424 | .616 | .276 | .349 | .476 | .825 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 4.4 | .704 | .188 | .013 | .158 | .375 | .896 | .270 | .339 | .444 | .783 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 4.3 | .578 | .129 | .023 | .206 | .413 | 1.060 | .246 | .325 | .454 | .780 |
| Spencer Jones | 4.2 | .528 | .151 | .009 | .192 | .329 | 1.494 | .233 | .300 | .430 | .729 |
| José Caballero | 4.0 | .603 | .159 | .007 | .085 | .367 | .923 | .238 | .322 | .357 | .679 |
| Ryan McMahon | 3.9 | .495 | .128 | .006 | .142 | .435 | 1.207 | .222 | .313 | .385 | .698 |
| J.C. Escarra | 3.8 | .557 | .152 | .025 | .083 | .338 | .730 | .238 | .314 | .370 | .684 |
| Anthony Volpe | 3.7 | .491 | .159 | .019 | .114 | .319 | .820 | .234 | .306 | .394 | .700 |
Data notes: home starter Gerrit Cole: only 61 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Gerrit Cole: only 28 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections